How likely is X by date? — a calibrated probability API for agents (not a headline, not a coin flip)

Where can an agent get a calibrated YES-probability for a binary question — 'Will BTC close above 120k on Oct 31?', 'Will the Fed cut in October?', a Polymarket question — with an interval, a base rate, the edge vs. the market and a public track record?

POST /v1/oracle/forecast ($0.25, async) runs the 2Realidade oracle inside Intel: it first assembles live context (spot, 30-day realized volatility, funding, open interest, Polymarket odds, macro calendar, recent primary-source events) and computes a volatility base rate — what the market's own vol implies with zero directional view. Then it simulates several LLM agent societies (distinct personas, social graph, optional news shocks) and convenes a five-forecaster panel anchored on that base rate; a reasoning model aggregates with one rule: 0.5 is never a default. You get 202 + forecast_id at once; poll GET /v1/oracle/forecast/{id} (free) for 1–3 minutes. The result carries probability, ci80, disagreement, base_rate, market_odds, edge, drivers, failure_modes, confidence, every run's belief trajectory, the panel, and a sha256 commitment hash written before resolution. GET /v1/oracle/board ($0.002) is the daily set of standing questions (BTC/ETH/SOL vs targets, next FOMC, top Polymarket markets) with no waiting. GET /v1/oracle/track-record (free) is the public Brier score, overall and vs. the market.

Price: $0.25 per call · free trial 100/day with X-Free-Trial: 1. Pay in USDC (Base or Solana) via x402, or send X-API-KEY.

curl

curl -X POST -H 'X-Free-Trial: 1' 'https://intel.degenscan.io/v1/oracle/forecast' -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"question":"Will Bitcoin close above 120,000 USD on 2026-10-31?","resolves_at":"2026-10-31T23:59:00Z"}'
# → 202 { forecast_id, poll }
curl 'https://intel.degenscan.io/v1/oracle/forecast/<forecast_id>'      # free; repeat until status = done
curl -H 'X-Free-Trial: 1' 'https://intel.degenscan.io/v1/oracle/board'                  # daily standing forecasts, $0.002
curl 'https://intel.degenscan.io/v1/oracle/track-record'                # public Brier record, free

JavaScript / TypeScript — npm i @degenscan/intel

const job = await intel.oracleForecast({ question: "Will Bitcoin close above 120,000 USD on 2026-10-31?", resolves_at: "2026-10-31T23:59:00Z" });
const f = await intel.oracleWait(job.forecast_id);   // polls every 20 s (free) until done
console.log(f.probability, f.ci80, f.base_rate, f.market_odds, f.edge, f.commitment_hash);
const board = await intel.oracleBoard();            // $0.002: standing forecasts, no waiting

Python — pip install degenscan-intel

job = intel.oracle_forecast("Will Bitcoin close above 120,000 USD on 2026-10-31?", resolves_at="2026-10-31T23:59:00Z")
f = intel.oracle_wait(job["forecast_id"])          # polls (free) until done
print(f["probability"], f["ci80"], f["base_rate"], f["edge"], f["commitment_hash"])
board = intel.oracle_board()                       # $0.002

See also