{"status":"done","id":"078ff2a6a8d7","question":"Will BTC close above 94,500 USD on 2026-10-31 (Coinbase daily close, UTC)?","created_at":"2026-10-04T06:18:17.820Z","resolves_at":"2026-10-31T23:59:59.000Z","routing":{"domain":"crypto","method":"hybrid","human_driven":true,"binary":true,"rationale":"BTC price is an aggregate market outcome driven by trader positioning, macro narratives, and event reactions (FOMC, CPI, PCE). Binary close-above-94500 resolves on Coinbase daily close; 11.3% distance, 26d horizon, z=1.07, base rate 0.143 vs implied move 10.05%."},"probability":0.155,"ci80":[0.12,0.2383],"disagreement":0.0685,"runs":[{"seed":42,"probability":0.1922,"belief_trajectory":[0.211,0.2068,0.2018,0.1957],"polarization":0.0727,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":43,"probability":0.3594,"belief_trajectory":[0.3875,0.3795,0.373,0.367],"polarization":0.14,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":44,"probability":0.2383,"belief_trajectory":[0.27,0.2535,0.244,0.238],"polarization":0.1063,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":45,"probability":0.1713,"belief_trajectory":[0.187,0.186,0.1795,0.1728],"polarization":0.0751,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":46,"probability":0.1549,"belief_trajectory":[0.167,0.166,0.162,0.1565],"polarization":0.064,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":47,"probability":0.1853,"belief_trajectory":[0.198,0.1925,0.1905,0.189],"polarization":0.0897,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]}],"panel":[{"name":"OutsideView","method":"reference class / driftless lognormal","anchor":0.143,"probability":0.13,"reasoning":"Base rate 0.143 is the driftless lognormal end-above prob at z=1.07 over 26d. Realized vol 30d ann 0.3765 vs implied move 10.05% to target implies options market prices roughly similar odds; no edge to add. Slight haircut because funding 0.0001% (0.01%/8h) is barely positive, no squeeze fuel, and 26d horizon is short.","key_uncertainty":"Whether realized vol expands toward 0.45+ into FOMC/CPI, which would lift the tail."},{"name":"InsideView","method":"inside view on macro calendar","anchor":0.143,"probability":0.15,"reasoning":"Horizon contains FOMC Minutes (10/07), CPI (10/14), PPI/Retail (10/15), FOMC decision (10/28), GDP+PCE (10/29). A +11.3% move in 26d needs a dovish surprise chain; CPI and FOMC are two-sided but historically inject vol. Base rate assumes flat drift; event clustering modestly raises upside tail. +0.7pp only, keeping within tail rule.","key_uncertainty":"Direction of macro surprise; a hot CPI would make 94.5k unreachable."},{"name":"TrendPositioning","method":"trend & positioning (funding, OI, flows)","anchor":0.143,"probability":0.12,"reasoning":"Funding 0.0001%/8h is essentially neutral-to-slightly-long, not extreme (|rate| << 0.05%), so no contrarian squeeze signal. OI $3.15B is moderate, no crowding. Recent Polymarket prints show Up-or-Down collapsing to 0-2% and above-86k to ~0-1%, i.e. market repricing lower after a down move; positioning is not supportive of a +11.3% rally. Haircut anchor slightly.","key_uncertainty":"OI is aggregate and may understate perp leverage on offshore venues."},{"name":"EventDriven","method":"event-driven / calendar","anchor":0.143,"probability":0.17,"reasoning":"Named reasons to move up: (a) two FOMC events plus CPI/PPI/PCE inside horizon — a dovish FOMC on 10/28 with soft CPI on 10/14 could produce the required +11.3% melt-up in the final days; (b) the market_odds cluster shows the 86k line at ~0-1% which is below base_rate-implied for 86k, suggesting the market may be underpricing upside optionality post-CPI. Cumulative move capped at +2.7pp, inside 25pp allowance and tail-rule odds band (0.08-0.26).","key_uncertainty":"Whether a dovish FOMC lands before the 10/31 close or after it."},{"name":"DevilsAdvocate","method":"devil's advocate / falsification","anchor":0.143,"probability":0.09,"reasoning":"The strongest evidence against: recent Polymarket \"above 86,000\" at 0-1% and Up-or-Down at 0-2% means the crowd just watched BTC fail to hold 86k; spot 84.9k is 11.3% below target with only 26 days. Realized vol 0.3765 implies a 1-sigma 26d move of ~10%, so 94.5k is a ~1.07-sigma event with no positive drift and neutral funding. Base rate may itself be optimistic if drift is negative post-recent-selloff. Cut to 0.09, still inside 0.08-0.26 band.","key_uncertainty":"If the recent selloff is exhaustion rather than trend, the downside case is overstated."}],"summary":"Base rate is 0.143 at z=1.07 over 26d; runs are optimistic (naive log-odds center 0.170) but one flipped run is a 0.359 outlier, while the human panel is bearish (mean 0.132). Net odds edge over base is only ~1.1x, so I stay near the base-panel cluster at 0.155, keeping the run divergence visible.","drivers":["Base anchor: 0.143 driftless lognormal; realized 30d vol 0.3765 implies ~10% 26d sigma, so 94.5k is a ~1-sigma rally.","Panel below base (mean 0.132): TrendPositioning 0.12 and DevilsAdvocate 0.09 cite neutral funding, moderate OI, and recent Polymarket prints showing failure to hold 86k.","Runs above base (mean 0.217, robust ex-flip ~0.187): InsideView/EventDriven see CPI/FOMC/PCE vol injection and possible dovish melt-up.","Funding 0.0001%/8h and OI $3.15B are neutral—no squeeze fuel either way; event clustering can raise vol but direction is two-sided."],"failure_modes":["YES breaks if macro surprises turn dovish (soft CPI 10/14, dovish FOMC 10/28) and vol expands toward 0.45+, enabling a late +11.3% melt-up.","NO breaks if the recent selloff is exhaustion and crowd 86k-line pessimism is overdone; short squeeze or ETF flow reversal could produce the required move.","Model risk: driftless lognormal ignores fat tails/regime shifts; a single outlier run (0.359) materially flips the log-odds center."],"confidence":"medium","cost":{"prompt":107666,"completion":33159,"calls":75},"commitment_hash":"87b3190957095be6c5151100ac13a5c998fe06e4c71ba6dd89ddf03f39c740e5","market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"edge":null,"base_rate":0.143,"edge_vs_base":0.012,"config":{"runs":6,"population":20,"rounds":3,"capped":false},"context_used":{"as_of":"2026-10-04 06:15 UTC","asset":"BTC","spot":84908.345,"target":94500,"distance_pct":11.3,"horizon_days":26,"realized_vol_30d_ann":0.3765,"implied_move_pct":10.05,"z_to_target":1.07,"funding_8h":0.0001,"open_interest_usd":3150514171,"market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"base_rate":0.143,"base_rate_note":"driftless lognormal end-above probability; z=1.07 sigmas over 26d","upcoming_events":["2026-10-07: FOMC Minutes","2026-10-14: Consumer Price Index (CPI)","2026-10-15: Producer Price Index (PPI)","2026-10-15: Advance Monthly Retail Sales","2026-10-28: FOMC Rate Decision + Statement","2026-10-29: GDP Q3 (Advance)","2026-10-29: Personal Income & Outlays (PCE inflation)"],"recent_events":["Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 100% (+24 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3?\" → Up 0% (-41 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3?\" → Up 2% (-48 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 1% (-30 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 0% (-54 pts/24h)"],"extra":{},"sources":["price_for","derivs_for","impact_for","calendar"],"sources_unavailable":[]},"engine_version":"0.3.3-ts","disclaimer":"Information and analytics only — not investment advice. Probabilities are model outputs with a public Brier track record at /v1/oracle/track-record."}