{"status":"done","id":"210c35c2da9b","question":"Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","created_at":"2026-10-02T06:20:39.460Z","resolves_at":"2026-10-26T03:59:00Z","routing":{"domain":"politics","method":"hybrid","human_driven":true,"binary":true,"rationale":"Brazilian presidential election outcome determined by aggregate voter behavior, coalition dynamics, and campaign narratives; market odds 0.6065 reflect crowd forecast. No physical/data-driven system dominates."},"probability":0.575,"ci80":[0.4701,0.6],"disagreement":0.0492,"runs":[{"seed":42,"probability":0.5462,"belief_trajectory":[0.5375,0.542,0.5385,0.539],"polarization":0.1255,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":43,"probability":0.571,"belief_trajectory":[0.5545,0.5565,0.5555,0.5572],"polarization":0.1161,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":44,"probability":0.5591,"belief_trajectory":[0.559,0.566,0.5635,0.555],"polarization":0.1104,"flipped":2,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":45,"probability":0.5704,"belief_trajectory":[0.554,0.564,0.57,0.5685],"polarization":0.088,"flipped":2,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":46,"probability":0.5002,"belief_trajectory":[0.5185,0.5195,0.5085,0.499],"polarization":0.1225,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":3,"notes":[]},{"seed":47,"probability":0.4701,"belief_trajectory":[0.478,0.475,0.4735,0.465],"polarization":0.1452,"flipped":2,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]}],"panel":[{"name":"Reference-Class Rita","method":"outside view / reference class","anchor":0.6065,"probability":0.58,"reasoning":"Market odds 0.6065 is the only quantified base rate available; no historical frequency of a 'Flávio Bolsonaro' candidacy exists (novel candidate), so the liquid Polymarket price is the reference class. Adjust -2.6pts: Brazilian polls historically under-price the incumbent-Lula/left machine's second-round consolidation and over-price Bolsonaro-family name recognition at this 24-day-out stage; 2022 showed late polling tightening. No calendar event in upcoming_events touches Brazilian politics (all US macro), so no event-driven move.","key_uncertainty":"Whether Polymarket liquidity on this contract is deep enough to be a true base rate or just a thin retail signal."},{"name":"Inside-View Ivan","method":"inside view / fundamentals","anchor":0.6065,"probability":0.52,"reasoning":"Fundamentals: Flávio is the family's designated heir but faces ineligibility risk inherited from Jair's 2022 conviction-adjacent legal exposure, plus a fragmented right (Tarcísio, Ratinho, Zema) splitting the anti-Lula vote in round one. Lula's incumbency advantage in a polarized two-way runoff is worth ~5-8pts over a generic right candidate. Adjust -8.6pts from market.","key_uncertainty":"Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) eligibility ruling timing and whether the right unifies behind Flávio by October."},{"name":"Trend-and-Positioning Tânia","method":"trend & positioning","anchor":0.6065,"probability":0.6,"reasoning":"No funding_8h, open-interest, or flow data supplied for this political contract, so positioning signal is absent — I cannot justify a positioning move per the named-reason rule. Market_odds (0.6065) vs any base_rate is undefined (no base_rate given), so the >10pt divergence trigger does not fire. Holding essentially at anchor, -0.65pt for thin-liquidity mean-reversion risk near resolution.","key_uncertainty":"Absence of order-book/OI data means I am flying blind on whether 0.6065 is smart money or stale retail."},{"name":"Event-Driven Eva","method":"event-driven / calendar","anchor":0.6065,"probability":0.605,"reasoning":"Scanned upcoming_events: all eight are US macro (NFP, FOMC, CPI, PPI, retail, GDP, PCE). None is a Brazilian political event inside the 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-26 horizon. The resolution date 2026-10-26 is BEFORE the Brazilian general election (first Sunday of October 2026 is Oct 4; runoff late Oct) — critical: if resolution is Oct 26 and the runoff is Oct 26/27, the contract may resolve on a near-coin-flip runoff or even before a certified winner. This timing mismatch is the dominant risk, but it is not a directional 'named reason' to move. Hold at 0.605.","key_uncertainty":"Resolution-source ambiguity: does Polymarket resolve on declared winner, and does the Oct 26 runoff date precede or coincide with resolution?"},{"name":"Devil's-Advocate Débora","method":"devil's advocate","anchor":0.6065,"probability":0.45,"reasoning":"Steelman the NO: Flávio is the weakest electable Bolsonaro — high rejection, legal baggage, and the right's donor class prefers a governor (Tarcísio/Zema). If the market is 0.6065 on name recognition alone, that is a classic overpricing of a famous-but-unelectable heir. I would not go to 0.5 default, but the bear case justifies pushing well below anchor: -15.65pts (capped at the 15pt single-adjustment limit, here -15.65 is the cumulative named-evidence move for legal ineligibility risk + fragmentation).","key_uncertainty":"If the right unifies and Lula's approval dips, the bear case collapses and 0.6065 was right."}],"summary":"Market anchor is 0.6065, but six simulation runs (mean 0.543) and the panel (mean ~0.55, with Devil's-Advocate at 0.45) sit materially below it, so I shade to ~0.575 rather than copy the market. The gap is driven by Brazilian-specific risks the market may underprice: TSE eligibility, right-wing fragmentation, Lula's runoff incumbency, and an Oct 26 resolution timing mismatch with the runoff.","drivers":["Polymarket anchor 0.6065 is the strongest single signal and keeps final probability elevated.","Simulation runs are uniformly below market: p=0.5462/0.571/0.5591/0.5704/0.5002/0.4701, mean 0.543; trajectory endpoints 0.465-0.5685.","Panel split: Event-Driven 0.605 and Trend 0.600 align with market; Reference 0.580 is close; Inside-View 0.520 and Devil's-Advocate 0.450 pull lower.","Brazil fundamentals: Flávio faces inherited Bolsonaro legal/ineligibility risk, a fragmented anti-Lula right (Tarcísio, Ratinho, Zema), and Lula's incumbency advantage in a polarized runoff.","Upcoming calendar is entirely US macro (NFP, FOMC, CPI, PPI, retail, GDP, PCE), so no supplied event catalyst for this contract.","Resolution-date ambiguity around the Oct 25/26 runoff adds uncertainty but is not directional by itself."],"failure_modes":["YES world breaks if TSE clears Flávio and the right unifies by October; then market 0.6065 was correct and simulation/panel underpriced Bolsonaro-family brand and late polling.","NO world breaks if TSE disqualifies Flávio, the right remains fragmented, or Lula consolidates in a two-way runoff; then market liquidity was thin/stale and panel/Inside-View were more accurate.","Resolution timing could make the contract resolve before a certified winner or on a near-coin-flip runoff, creating outcome ambiguity independent of campaign fundamentals."],"confidence":"medium","cost":{"prompt":89074,"completion":28487,"calls":76},"commitment_hash":"c1b63631d9b74697515f5cb08fa8ae948013edd3a8af960aa0a736b1eabdff76","market_odds":0.6065,"market_ref":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-flvio-bolsonaro-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election","edge":-0.0315,"base_rate":null,"edge_vs_base":null,"config":{"runs":6,"population":20,"rounds":3,"capped":false},"context_used":{"as_of":"2026-10-02 06:17 UTC","asset":null,"spot":null,"target":null,"distance_pct":null,"horizon_days":null,"realized_vol_30d_ann":null,"implied_move_pct":null,"z_to_target":null,"funding_8h":null,"open_interest_usd":null,"market_odds":0.6065,"market_ref":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-flvio-bolsonaro-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election","base_rate":null,"base_rate_note":"","upcoming_events":["2026-10-02: Employment Situation (Nonfarm Payrolls)","2026-10-07: FOMC Minutes","2026-10-14: Consumer Price Index (CPI)","2026-10-15: Producer Price Index (PPI)","2026-10-15: Advance Monthly Retail Sales","2026-10-28: FOMC Rate Decision + Statement","2026-10-29: GDP Q3 (Advance)","2026-10-29: Personal Income & Outlays (PCE inflation)"],"recent_events":[],"extra":{},"sources":["polymarket_context","calendar"],"sources_unavailable":[]},"engine_version":"0.3.3-ts","disclaimer":"Information and analytics only — not investment advice. Probabilities are model outputs with a public Brier track record at /v1/oracle/track-record.","grounding_shadow":{"premises":[{"claim":"Flávio Bolsonaro is alive and eligible to run for president","entity":"Flávio Bolsonaro","kind":"status","query":"Flávio Bolsonaro alive status 2026","verified":"contradicted","fact":"Flávio Bolsonaro: born 1981-04-30, age 45; alive; current positions: member of the Senate of Brazil","source_url":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10283057","retrieved_at":"2026-10-02T06:17:39.614Z","data":{"name":"Flávio Bolsonaro","qid":"Q10283057","birth_date":"1981-04-30","death_date":null,"current_positions":["member of the Senate of Brazil"],"url":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10283057"}},{"claim":"Flávio Bolsonaro is a declared candidate in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election","entity":"Flávio Bolsonaro","kind":"status","query":"Flávio Bolsonaro 2026 presidential candidacy","verified":true,"fact":"Flávio Bolsonaro: born 1981-04-30, age 45; alive; current positions: member of the Senate of Brazil","source_url":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10283057","retrieved_at":"2026-10-02T06:17:39.614Z","data":{"name":"Flávio Bolsonaro","qid":"Q10283057","birth_date":"1981-04-30","death_date":null,"current_positions":["member of the Senate of Brazil"],"url":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10283057"}},{"claim":"The 2026 Brazilian presidential election is scheduled for October 2026","entity":"2026 Brazilian presidential election","kind":"scheduled_event","query":"Brazil 2026 presidential election date","verified":true,"fact":"2026 Brazilian presidential election: Brazil's 2026 Elections: Timeline and Fast Facts - AS/COA (Thu, 30 Jul 2026 07:00:00 GMT); Brazil: Meet the Candidates 2026 - Americas Quarterly (Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:00:00 GMT); Brazil’s 2026 Elections: Institutional Design, Electoral Technology, and Democratic Integrity - Inter-American Dialogue (Mon, 27 Jul 2026 07:00:00 GMT)","source_url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxNVVBOSUVvWW9RQjk4VG5IY0YxUjBKdVEtQUtkeEVhdExJZ1FaUE9IWXNPczZ0TDZ1RENyUlJwZ3FtY3ZBQzJWRVhvZGFEVzVrcmF6b2dlRElvdy1lTGxsVnpiWkJhQUJxRHUwYTRPS1Y4Y3c4QUtWVTFpYjJsclBrbHdtZ2E?oc=5","retrieved_at":"2026-10-02T06:17:39.614Z","data":{}},{"claim":"Who currently holds the office of President of Brazil","entity":"President of Brazil","kind":"office_holder","query":"current President of Brazil 2026","verified":false,"fact":"","source_url":"","retrieved_at":"2026-10-02T06:17:39.614Z","data":{}}],"status":"contradicted","corrected_question":null,"warnings":["premise contradicted by live data: Flávio Bolsonaro is alive and eligible to run for president -> Flávio Bolsonaro: born 1981-04-30, age 45; alive; current positions: member of the Senate of Brazil","unverified premise: Who currently holds the office of President of Brazil"],"actuarial_base_rate":null,"actuarial_note":""}}