{"status":"done","id":"2ef0b8cadd4f","question":"Will SOL close below 99 USD on 2026-10-31 (Coinbase daily close, UTC)?","created_at":"2026-10-04T06:34:53.113Z","resolves_at":"2026-10-31T23:59:59.000Z","routing":{"domain":"crypto","method":"hybrid","human_driven":true,"binary":true,"rationale":"SOL price is an aggregate market outcome driven by trader behavior, narratives, and macro event reactions (FOMC, CPI, PCE). Binary resolution: close below 99 USD on 2026-10-31. Spot 120.675, target 99 (-17.96%), 26d horizon, realized vol 61.6% ann, implied move 16.4%, z=-1.20, base rate 11.4% for below. Human-driven via sentiment, funding, and event-driven flows."},"probability":0.17,"ci80":[0.12,0.2495],"disagreement":0.0624,"runs":[{"seed":42,"probability":0.2495,"belief_trajectory":[0.259,0.259,0.255,0.255],"polarization":0.1186,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":43,"probability":0.1796,"belief_trajectory":[0.1715,0.1735,0.1745,0.176],"polarization":0.1027,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":44,"probability":0.3319,"belief_trajectory":[0.336,0.343,0.3465,0.347],"polarization":0.1158,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":45,"probability":0.192,"belief_trajectory":[0.182,0.188,0.1945,0.1965],"polarization":0.0772,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":46,"probability":0.2123,"belief_trajectory":[0.2355,0.2245,0.2183,0.2185],"polarization":0.0665,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":47,"probability":0.1908,"belief_trajectory":[0.2085,0.2035,0.1992,0.1957],"polarization":0.06,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]}],"panel":[{"name":"Reference Class Rachel","method":"outside view / reference class","anchor":0.114,"probability":0.12,"reasoning":"Start from driftless lognormal end-below probability 0.114 (z=-1.20 over 26d). Realized vol 61.6% ann vs implied move 16.44% — implied is roughly consistent, no vol-edge to shift. Base rate stands; no named reason in calendar/positioning/market justifies >2pt move.","key_uncertainty":"Realized vol regime shift; 26d is short so single fat-tail day dominates."},{"name":"Inside View Ivan","method":"inside view","anchor":0.114,"probability":0.16,"reasoning":"SOL-specific: Forward Industries added 949K SOL to 8.5M treasury — persistent corporate bid, mildly supportive of price, which lowers below-99 odds slightly vs base. But 26d horizon spans FOMC (10/28), CPI (10/14), PCE (10/29) — macro vol cluster raises two-sided tail. Net +5pts to below-probability from event vol, capped by corporate bid.","key_uncertainty":"Whether treasury bid absorbs macro-driven drawdowns."},{"name":"Trend & Positioning Tariq","method":"trend & positioning","anchor":0.114,"probability":0.13,"reasoning":"Funding_8h=+0.0001% (1bp) is neutral-to-slightly-long, OI $660M moderate — no extreme positioning trigger (|funding|<0.05%). No squeeze or capitulation setup. Distance to strike -17.96%, z=-1.20. Slight upward nudge from neutral-long funding that could unwind, but below threshold for named-reason move.","key_uncertainty":"OI build into FOMC could amplify a downside break."},{"name":"Event-Driven Elena","method":"event-driven (calendar)","anchor":0.114,"probability":0.15,"reasoning":"Named reason (a): five macro prints inside horizon incl. FOMC 10/28 and PCE 10/29. Historically CPI/FOMC weeks widen SOL's downside tail; +4pts justified. Polymarket BTC prints show sharp down-moves resolving near-zero on up-questions — evidence of recent downside skew in crypto. Cumulative move kept modest since no crypto-native catalyst scheduled.","key_uncertainty":"Direction of macro surprise; hawkish FOMC could push SOL toward 99."},{"name":"Devil's Advocate Dana","method":"devil's advocate","anchor":0.114,"probability":0.1,"reasoning":"Challenge the below-thesis: -18% in 26d requires ~2.5x the implied move to the downside. Spot 120.7, corporate accumulation ongoing, funding positive — momentum is not bearish. Base rate 0.114 may already overstate tail given driftless assumption ignores any positive drift. Trim 1.4pts.","key_uncertainty":"A single macro shock (hot CPI or hawkish FOMC) can erase the cushion in days."}],"summary":"Base rate for SOL below 99 on 2026-10-31 is 0.114; the runs+panel log-odds centre is 0.176, and I set 0.170, above base due to the macro event cluster (FOMC 10/28, CPI 10/14, PCE 10/29) inside the 26d horizon and realized vol at 61.6%. Corporate treasury bid and neutral/positive funding cap the YES upside, while the panel (mean 0.132) sits below the runs (mean 0.226), keeping divergence visible.","drivers":["Base-rate anchor: driftless lognormal z=-1.20 gives 0.114 for below 99.","Event-driven upside for YES: five macro prints incl. FOMC and PCE within 26d, historically widening SOL downside tails.","Vol context: realized vol 61.6% ann; implied move 16.44% is broadly consistent, so no vol-edge to shrink the tail.","Offsetting support: Forward Industries added 949K SOL to 8.5M treasury; funding +0.0001% and OI $660M show no capitulation setup.","Model divergence: runs mean ~0.226 vs panel mean ~0.132; combined log-odds centre 0.176, final 0.170 respects the centre without drifting above it."],"failure_modes":["YES breaks if hawkish FOMC, hot CPI/PCE, or negative funding flip triggers a fast break below 99; thin liquidity into macro prints amplifies downside.","NO breaks if corporate treasury bids absorb macro shocks, dovish Fed signals or softer inflation lift SOL back toward 120+, and realized vol decays without a named catalyst."],"confidence":"medium","cost":{"prompt":107013,"completion":31180,"calls":75},"commitment_hash":"b1007a9e41238544e6b716e1f40e2cc6295fd819ea4b3dfa95a5459d80679121","market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"edge":null,"base_rate":0.114,"edge_vs_base":0.056,"config":{"runs":6,"population":20,"rounds":3,"capped":false},"context_used":{"as_of":"2026-10-04 06:31 UTC","asset":"SOL","spot":120.675,"target":99,"distance_pct":-17.96,"horizon_days":26,"realized_vol_30d_ann":0.6158,"implied_move_pct":16.44,"z_to_target":-1.2,"funding_8h":0.0001,"open_interest_usd":660506241,"market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"base_rate":0.114,"base_rate_note":"complement (question asks BELOW); driftless lognormal end-above probability; z=-1.20 sigmas over 26d","upcoming_events":["2026-10-07: FOMC Minutes","2026-10-14: Consumer Price Index (CPI)","2026-10-15: Producer Price Index (PPI)","2026-10-15: Advance Monthly Retail Sales","2026-10-28: FOMC Rate Decision + Statement","2026-10-29: GDP Q3 (Advance)","2026-10-29: Personal Income & Outlays (PCE inflation)"],"recent_events":["Forward Industries Grows SOL Holdings by 949K to 8.5 Million SOL in Fiscal Fourth Quarter, Increasing SOL per Share to 0","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 100% (+24 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3?\" → Up 0% (-41 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3?\" → Up 2% (-48 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 1% (-30 pts/24h)"],"extra":{},"sources":["price_for","derivs_for","impact_for","calendar"],"sources_unavailable":[]},"engine_version":"0.3.3-ts","disclaimer":"Information and analytics only — not investment advice. Probabilities are model outputs with a public Brier track record at /v1/oracle/track-record."}