{"status":"done","id":"3337a0a31b17","question":"Will BTC close above 89,000 USD on 2026-10-31 (Coinbase daily close, UTC)?","created_at":"2026-10-04T06:17:22.288Z","resolves_at":"2026-10-31T23:59:59.000Z","routing":{"domain":"crypto","method":"hybrid","human_driven":true,"binary":true,"rationale":"BTC price is an aggregate market outcome driven by trader positioning, funding, and macro-event reactions; 26d horizon with z=0.47, base rate 0.319, implied move 10.05% vs distance 4.83%."},"probability":0.335,"ci80":[0.28,0.3746],"disagreement":0.0422,"runs":[{"seed":42,"probability":0.3107,"belief_trajectory":[0.333,0.326,0.32,0.313],"polarization":0.088,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":43,"probability":0.4113,"belief_trajectory":[0.4375,0.436,0.4295,0.4175],"polarization":0.1271,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":44,"probability":0.366,"belief_trajectory":[0.394,0.3933,0.3845,0.3743],"polarization":0.1109,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":45,"probability":0.3746,"belief_trajectory":[0.398,0.396,0.392,0.3835],"polarization":0.0982,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":46,"probability":0.3265,"belief_trajectory":[0.352,0.3455,0.3413,0.3362],"polarization":0.0704,"flipped":2,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":47,"probability":0.3575,"belief_trajectory":[0.3815,0.376,0.37,0.365],"polarization":0.0934,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]}],"panel":[{"name":"OutsideView","method":"reference class","anchor":0.319,"probability":0.33,"reasoning":"Driftless lognormal base_rate=0.319 with z=0.47 over 26d. No directional edge from spot alone. Implied move 10.05% vs realized 30d vol 37.65% ann (~10.1% over 26d) — market-implied vol roughly matches realized, so no vol premium to fade. Anchor holds; small +1pt for slight positive drift in crypto regime.","key_uncertainty":"Whether 30d realized vol underestimates event-driven October vol"},{"name":"InsideView","method":"inside view","anchor":0.319,"probability":0.28,"reasoning":"BTC at 84,896 needs +4.83% in 26 days. Recent Polymarket prints show sharp downside momentum: 'above 86,000' collapsed 30-54 pts to ~0-1%, 'Up or Down' fell 41-48 pts. Tape is weak going into a heavy macro calendar. Adjust -4pts from anchor for deteriorating near-term momentum.","key_uncertainty":"Momentum reversal risk after oversold Polymarket repricing"},{"name":"TrendPositioning","method":"trend & positioning","anchor":0.319,"probability":0.3,"reasoning":"funding_8h=0.0001% (0.01bps) — essentially neutral, no crowded longs to squeeze. OI $3.15B is moderate, not extreme. No positioning signal meets the |rate|>0.05% threshold, so no named-reason move. Slight -2pt for neutral-to-soft funding suggesting no aggressive upside bid.","key_uncertainty":"OI data may lag; hidden leverage could amplify a move either way"},{"name":"EventDriven","method":"event-driven","anchor":0.319,"probability":0.35,"reasoning":"Dense calendar: FOMC Minutes 10/07, CPI 10/14, PPI+Retail 10/15, FOMC Decision 10/28, GDP+PCE 10/29. FOMC 10/28 and PCE 10/29 land 2-3 days before resolution — high variance injection. Historically these events widen the distribution; with z=0.47 already near coin-flip territory, added variance modestly raises P(above 89k) via right-tail. +3pts named reason (a) scheduled events in horizon.","key_uncertainty":"Direction of FOMC/PCE surprise — could push either way"},{"name":"DevilsAdvocate","method":"devil's advocate","anchor":0.319,"probability":0.26,"reasoning":"Challenge the base_rate: lognormal assumes symmetric log returns, but crypto has fat left tails and drawdown clustering. Polymarket collapse in 'above 86k' to ~0-1% signals market pricing materially below 86k near-term, which is bearish for reaching 89k by month-end. If 86k is near-impossible now, 89k is a stretch. Adjust -6pts. No named tail-rule breach (anchor 0.319 not in tail zone).","key_uncertainty":"Whether Polymarket short-dated prints extrapolate to 26-day horizon"}],"summary":"Anchored on the driftless lognormal base_rate of 0.319 (z=0.47, 26d), I nudge up ~1.6pts because market-implied move (10.05%) is matched by realized vol (~10.1%) so there is no vol premium to fade, while the dense macro calendar (FOMC 10/28, PCE 10/29) injects right-tail variance before resolution. Panel mean (0.304) is bearish on Polymarket short-dated momentum, while runs mean (~0.358) is slightly bullish; the blend lands modestly above anchor, not at 0.5.","drivers":["Base rate 0.319 from driftless lognormal, z=0.47, distance 4.83% vs implied move 10.05% — anchor holds with no directional edge from spot","Implied vs realized vol matched (10.05% vs ~10.1% over 26d) — no vol premium to sell, so no mechanical fade of the anchor","Panel dispersion is informative: inside view 0.28 and devil's advocate 0.26 cite Polymarket 'above 86,000' collapse to 0-1% and negative 'Up or Down' prints (bearish momentum); event-driven 0.35 and outside view 0.33 offset","Runs mean ~0.358 > panel mean ~0.304, with trajectory endpoints drifting down slightly (0.383→0.365 avg); runs lean mildly bullish vs panel, divergence kept visible","Event variance injection (FOMC Minutes 10/07, CPI 10/14, FOMC 10/28, GDP/PCE 10/29 — 2-3 days pre-resolution) modestly raises right-tail P(above) given z>0","Funding 8h=0.0001% and OI $3.15B are neutral/moderate — no crowded-longs squeeze and no positioning named-reason move"],"failure_modes":[],"confidence":"medium","cost":{"prompt":108060,"completion":27505,"calls":75},"commitment_hash":"6e1be8ef500ab1b992f4ecfbc96f3f830fb89de4ca0d4ae4e35459b6a5533613","market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"edge":null,"base_rate":0.319,"edge_vs_base":0.016,"config":{"runs":6,"population":20,"rounds":3,"capped":false},"context_used":{"as_of":"2026-10-04 06:14 UTC","asset":"BTC","spot":84896.435,"target":89000,"distance_pct":4.83,"horizon_days":26,"realized_vol_30d_ann":0.3765,"implied_move_pct":10.05,"z_to_target":0.47,"funding_8h":0.0001,"open_interest_usd":3150516305,"market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"base_rate":0.319,"base_rate_note":"driftless lognormal end-above probability; z=0.47 sigmas over 26d","upcoming_events":["2026-10-07: FOMC Minutes","2026-10-14: Consumer Price Index (CPI)","2026-10-15: Producer Price Index (PPI)","2026-10-15: Advance Monthly Retail Sales","2026-10-28: FOMC Rate Decision + Statement","2026-10-29: GDP Q3 (Advance)","2026-10-29: Personal Income & Outlays (PCE inflation)"],"recent_events":["Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 100% (+24 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3?\" → Up 0% (-41 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3?\" → Up 2% (-48 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 1% (-30 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 0% (-54 pts/24h)"],"extra":{},"sources":["price_for","derivs_for","impact_for","calendar"],"sources_unavailable":[]},"engine_version":"0.3.3-ts","disclaimer":"Information and analytics only — not investment advice. Probabilities are model outputs with a public Brier track record at /v1/oracle/track-record."}