{"status":"done","id":"4b1c0c24c431","question":"Will ETH close above 3,050 USD on 2026-10-31 (Coinbase daily close, UTC)?","created_at":"2026-10-04T06:25:56.424Z","resolves_at":"2026-10-31T23:59:59.000Z","routing":{"domain":"crypto","method":"hybrid","human_driven":true,"binary":true,"rationale":"ETH price close is an aggregate market outcome driven by trader positioning, funding, and macro event reactions; base rate 12.4% vs implied move 10.76% and z=1.16, with FOMC/CPI/PCE catalysts inside horizon."},"probability":0.16,"ci80":[0.12,0.2887],"disagreement":0.0651,"runs":[{"seed":42,"probability":0.1643,"belief_trajectory":[0.182,0.1788,0.1738,0.169],"polarization":0.0739,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":43,"probability":0.2887,"belief_trajectory":[0.323,0.311,0.3055,0.2993],"polarization":0.1149,"flipped":4,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":44,"probability":0.2496,"belief_trajectory":[0.2845,0.27,0.2668,0.261],"polarization":0.1056,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":45,"probability":0.2891,"belief_trajectory":[0.292,0.293,0.2905,0.2915],"polarization":0.0707,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":46,"probability":0.2386,"belief_trajectory":[0.264,0.2543,0.2468,0.2415],"polarization":0.0806,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":47,"probability":0.2129,"belief_trajectory":[0.231,0.2333,0.229,0.223],"polarization":0.0946,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]}],"panel":[{"name":"Reference Class","method":"outside view","anchor":0.124,"probability":0.13,"reasoning":"Driftless lognormal base rate 0.124 with z=1.16 over 26d. No evidence justifies deviating materially; realized vol 40% and implied move 10.76% are consistent with base.","key_uncertainty":"Vol regime shift into FOMC."},{"name":"Inside View","method":"inside view","anchor":0.124,"probability":0.12,"reasoning":"ETH spot 2693, needs +13.2% in 26d. Funding flat (0.0001), OI moderate, no momentum signal. Macro calendar (FOMC 10/28, CPI 10/14, GDP/PCE 10/29) is dense and two-sided. Slight haircut for event risk clustering near expiry.","key_uncertainty":"FOMC outcome direction."},{"name":"Trend & Positioning","method":"trend & positioning","anchor":0.124,"probability":0.14,"reasoning":"Funding 0.0001% is neutral (not extreme), OI $3.2B unremarkable. No positioning squeeze setup. Recent Polymarket churn ($2700 flip 0%->67%) shows reflexive 2-3% moves, not 13%. Neutral-to-slightly-positive adjustment from recent $2700 reclaim momentum.","key_uncertainty":"Whether neutral funding masks hidden leverage."},{"name":"Event-Driven","method":"event-driven","anchor":0.124,"probability":0.16,"reasoning":"Named calendar: FOMC 10/28 + GDP/PCE 10/29 land 2-3 days before resolution — a dovish surprise could produce the required +13% melt-up. CPI 10/14 also a catalyst. Historically such clusters widen the right tail. Modest upward adjustment (+3.6pts) justified by named events.","key_uncertainty":"Direction of FOMC surprise."},{"name":"Devil's Advocate","method":"devil's advocate","anchor":0.124,"probability":0.1,"reasoning":"Tail rule: anchor below 0.20, stay within x0.5..x2.0 of anchor odds (0.062..0.248). Bear case: ETH failed to hold $2700 repeatedly per Polymarket history, macro uncertainty is symmetric, and 13% upside in 26d requires a regime break. No named reason supports the upper bound. Trimming toward lower half.","key_uncertainty":"A macro risk-off leg lower would make 3050 unreachable."}],"summary":"Final calibrated probability is 0.16 for YES. The base rate is 0.124 and the panel clusters near 0.13, while optimistic simulation runs average about 0.24; I keep only a modest upward adjustment for the dense macro catalyst window without chasing the upper tail.","drivers":["Base rate 0.124 and implied move 10.76% vs 13.24% distance to 3,050 keep the prior low.","Panel median is ~0.13; only event-driven gives 0.16, and funding/OI show no squeeze setup.","Simulation runs are higher (mean ~0.24) due event catalysts/vol, but treated as optimistic and diluted toward panel/base.","FOMC 10/28 and GDP/PCE 10/29 land just before expiry, adding two-sided tail risk and a small upward adjustment."],"failure_modes":["YES world breaks if a dovish FOMC/CPI surprise or short squeeze forces a >13% ETH rally into month-end.","NO world breaks if hawkish macro, hot inflation, or risk-off pressure keeps ETH below $2,700 and compresses vol.","Model breaks if realized vol regime shifts sharply or Coinbase daily close/liquidity differs materially from spot assumptions."],"confidence":"medium","cost":{"prompt":107147,"completion":29676,"calls":75},"commitment_hash":"f1a4d5931b96ac20c0292458d8ede44bf283ebd86f1809f0e0371b98115ad9f3","market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"edge":null,"base_rate":0.124,"edge_vs_base":0.036,"config":{"runs":6,"population":20,"rounds":3,"capped":false},"context_used":{"as_of":"2026-10-04 06:23 UTC","asset":"ETH","spot":2693.465,"target":3050,"distance_pct":13.24,"horizon_days":26,"realized_vol_30d_ann":0.4033,"implied_move_pct":10.76,"z_to_target":1.16,"funding_8h":0.0001,"open_interest_usd":3230534921,"market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"base_rate":0.124,"base_rate_note":"driftless lognormal end-above probability; z=1.16 sigmas over 26d","upcoming_events":["2026-10-07: FOMC Minutes","2026-10-14: Consumer Price Index (CPI)","2026-10-15: Producer Price Index (PPI)","2026-10-15: Advance Monthly Retail Sales","2026-10-28: FOMC Rate Decision + Statement","2026-10-29: GDP Q3 (Advance)","2026-10-29: Personal Income & Outlays (PCE inflation)"],"recent_events":["Polymarket: \"Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 2?\" → Yes 0% (-39 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 2?\" → Yes 67% (+26 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?\" → Yes 0% (-23 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?\" → Yes 1% (-22 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?\" → Yes 1% (-22 pts/24h)"],"extra":{},"sources":["price_for","derivs_for","impact_for","calendar"],"sources_unavailable":[]},"engine_version":"0.3.3-ts","disclaimer":"Information and analytics only — not investment advice. Probabilities are model outputs with a public Brier track record at /v1/oracle/track-record."}