{"status":"done","id":"624658ca1ba1","question":"Will BTC trade above 94,500 USD at any point before 2026-10-31?","created_at":"2026-10-04T06:23:10.847Z","resolves_at":"2026-10-31T23:59:59.000Z","routing":{"domain":"crypto","method":"hybrid","human_driven":true,"binary":true,"rationale":"BTC price touch is aggregate market behavior; base rate 0.287 (z=1.06, 26d), implied move 10.05% vs 11.28% needed, funding flat 0.0001, OI $3.15B. Event-dense window (FOMC 10/28, CPI 10/14, PCE 10/29) raises tail vol. Recent Polymarket collapses on $86k strikes signal weak upside conviction. Touch prob modestly above driftless base, ~0.30-0.34."},"probability":0.285,"ci80":[0.22,0.3334],"disagreement":0.0456,"runs":[{"seed":42,"probability":0.2921,"belief_trajectory":[0.3075,0.3095,0.3015,0.2955],"polarization":0.0762,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":43,"probability":0.3334,"belief_trajectory":[0.376,0.3615,0.3543,0.3395],"polarization":0.1187,"flipped":2,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":44,"probability":0.3101,"belief_trajectory":[0.329,0.3208,0.3175,0.3167],"polarization":0.1087,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":45,"probability":0.3089,"belief_trajectory":[0.322,0.313,0.3152,0.3177],"polarization":0.0989,"flipped":2,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":46,"probability":0.2871,"belief_trajectory":[0.3065,0.305,0.2975,0.2888],"polarization":0.0684,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":47,"probability":0.2959,"belief_trajectory":[0.3045,0.2945,0.294,0.291],"polarization":0.0945,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]}],"panel":[{"name":"OutsideView","method":"reference class / driftless lognormal touch","anchor":0.287,"probability":0.3,"reasoning":"Base rate 0.287 is the driftless lognormal touch probability at z=1.06 over 26d. Realized vol 30d ann 0.3765 vs implied move 10.05% is roughly consistent; no vol regime break named. Small upward nudge to 0.30 because touch (not close) probabilities are fattened by intraday wicks and OI $3.15B gives liquidity for spikes. No named calendar/positioning/market reason exceeds the 10pt market-gap rule, so stay near anchor.","key_uncertainty":"Whether 30d realized vol understates forward vol into the Oct 28 FOMC."},{"name":"InsideView","method":"inside / structural","anchor":0.287,"probability":0.22,"reasoning":"Spot 84,921 needs +11.28% in 26 days. Recent Polymarket prints show sharp bearish repricing: 'above 86,000' collapsed to 0-1%, 'BTC Up on Oct 3' at 0-2%. That is a market telling us upside momentum is absent, which is a named market signal (c) pointing DOWN. Adjusting anchor down ~7pts to 0.22.","key_uncertainty":"Polymarket thin-liquidity prints may be noise rather than information."},{"name":"TrendPositioning","method":"trend & positioning","anchor":0.287,"probability":0.26,"reasoning":"funding_8h = 0.0001% is essentially neutral/flat — no crowded long to squeeze, no capitulation. OI $3.15B is unremarkable for BTC. No extreme positioning (|funding| far below 0.05% threshold), so no named reason to move hard. Slight trim to 0.26 reflecting flat-to-weak tape implied by recent down-prints.","key_uncertainty":"OI could be building off-exchange; funding neutrality can flip fast on a CPI/FOMC surprise."},{"name":"EventDriven","method":"calendar / event-driven","anchor":0.287,"probability":0.34,"reasoning":"Dense catalyst calendar inside horizon: FOMC Minutes (10/7), CPI (10/14), PPI+Retail (10/15), FOMC decision (10/28), GDP+PCE (10/29). Five macro prints in 26 days raise two-sided vol; a dovish CPI or FOMC cut could easily produce an 11% rip. Named reason (a) justifies upward adjustment to 0.34.","key_uncertainty":"Direction of macro surprise is unknown; events inflate variance, not drift."},{"name":"DevilsAdvocate","method":"devil's advocate / tail discipline","anchor":0.287,"probability":0.18,"reasoning":"Challenges the bullish event case: the same calendar can crush BTC if CPI/PCE run hot and FOMC holds hawkish. Recent market evidence is uniformly bearish (Up-prints at 0-2%, above-86k at 0-1%). Base rate already embeds vol; adding points for 'uncertainty' is forbidden. Applying an odds ratio ~0.63x to anchor odds (0.287 -> ~0.20) for the named bearish market signal, landing 0.18.","key_uncertainty":"If a dovish FOMC triggers a melt-up, this is the most wrong estimate."}],"summary":"Anchor base_rate 0.287; simulations converge near 0.30-0.31 while panel mean is ~0.26, netting a small discount to base. Recent Polymarket upside strikes collapsing below $86k argue against strong near-term upside, but the dense Oct macro calendar and $3.15B OI keep two-sided touch risk roughly at base.","drivers":["Driftless lognormal touch base_rate 0.287 at z~1.06 over 26d","Run probabilities mean ~0.305; trajectories drift down but stay above base","Panel split: EventDriven 0.34/OutsideView 0.30 vs InsideView 0.22/TrendPositioning 0.26/DevilsAdvocate 0.18; panel mean ~0.26","Recent Polymarket prints: above $86k at 0-1%, same-day Up at 0-2%, signaling weak upside momentum","Funding flat 0.0001 and OI $3.15B show no crowded positioning; FOMC, CPI, PCE inside horizon raise tail vol"],"failure_modes":[],"confidence":"medium","cost":{"prompt":106439,"completion":29945,"calls":75},"commitment_hash":"ed28e930f658093ba364fd6fa83e1b1929194a44a3059a7bc4371a87c42cc2d8","market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"edge":null,"base_rate":0.287,"edge_vs_base":-0.002,"config":{"runs":6,"population":20,"rounds":3,"capped":false},"context_used":{"as_of":"2026-10-04 06:20 UTC","asset":"BTC","spot":84920.995,"target":94500,"distance_pct":11.28,"horizon_days":26,"realized_vol_30d_ann":0.3765,"implied_move_pct":10.05,"z_to_target":1.06,"funding_8h":0.0001,"open_interest_usd":3150300690,"market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"base_rate":0.287,"base_rate_note":"driftless lognormal touch probability; z=1.06 sigmas over 26d","upcoming_events":["2026-10-07: FOMC Minutes","2026-10-14: Consumer Price Index (CPI)","2026-10-15: Producer Price Index (PPI)","2026-10-15: Advance Monthly Retail Sales","2026-10-28: FOMC Rate Decision + Statement","2026-10-29: GDP Q3 (Advance)","2026-10-29: Personal Income & Outlays (PCE inflation)"],"recent_events":["Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 100% (+24 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3?\" → Up 0% (-41 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3?\" → Up 2% (-48 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 1% (-30 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 0% (-54 pts/24h)"],"extra":{},"sources":["price_for","derivs_for","impact_for","calendar"],"sources_unavailable":[]},"engine_version":"0.3.3-ts","disclaimer":"Information and analytics only — not investment advice. Probabilities are model outputs with a public Brier track record at /v1/oracle/track-record."}