{"status":"done","id":"676aa8e37e1d","question":"Will Solana close above Ethereum in 30-day realized volatility on 2026-10-31?","created_at":"2026-10-04T06:06:40.088Z","resolves_at":"2026-10-31T23:59:59Z","routing":{"domain":"crypto","method":"hybrid","human_driven":true,"binary":true,"rationale":"SOL 30d rvol 0.6158 vs ETH 0.4033, gap +0.2125; sign persistence 0.571 over 25d (n=180). Base rate favors SOL staying above, but 26d horizon spans FOMC, CPI, PPI, GDP, PCE — macro shocks can compress or invert the vol spread. Human-driven via trader positioning/funding (funding 0.0001, OI $3.23B) and narrative flows; data-driven via realized vol mean reversion. Binary resolution on 2026-10-31."},"probability":0.579,"ci80":[0.5126,0.62],"disagreement":0.0387,"runs":[{"seed":42,"probability":0.5712,"belief_trajectory":[0.57,0.5805,0.582,0.5785],"polarization":0.1437,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":43,"probability":0.5847,"belief_trajectory":[0.592,0.595,0.5885,0.584],"polarization":0.1053,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":44,"probability":0.5634,"belief_trajectory":[0.5625,0.566,0.568,0.568],"polarization":0.1248,"flipped":5,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":45,"probability":0.5126,"belief_trajectory":[0.545,0.5375,0.5245,0.5125],"polarization":0.0963,"flipped":5,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":46,"probability":0.5599,"belief_trajectory":[0.543,0.55,0.5598,0.5628],"polarization":0.1476,"flipped":2,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":47,"probability":0.5421,"belief_trajectory":[0.554,0.558,0.5615,0.561],"polarization":0.1499,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]}],"panel":[{"name":"Reference-Class Rita","method":"outside view","anchor":0.571,"probability":0.6,"reasoning":"Base rate of sign persistence rvol30 SOL>ETH is 0.571 (n=180, 25d horizon). Current gap is large: SOL 0.6158 vs ETH 0.4033, +0.2125 ann. Larger gap implies more cushion against mean-reversion, modestly raising odds above raw persistence. Adjust +0.03.","key_uncertainty":"Whether the 180-sample persistence estimate is stable across regimes; vol ratios can compress fast."},{"name":"Inside-View Ivan","method":"inside view","anchor":0.571,"probability":0.63,"reasoning":"Solana's realized vol is structurally elevated vs ETH (higher beta, memecoin/NFT activity, thinner liquidity). 0.6158 vs 0.4033 is a 1.53x ratio, well within SOL's normal vol premium. Mean reversion over 26 days is real but gap would need to shrink >50% to flip sign.","key_uncertainty":"A single ETH idiosyncratic shock (ETF flow, upgrade news, regulatory) could spike ETH vol independently."},{"name":"Trend-and-Positioning Tanya","method":"trend & positioning","anchor":0.571,"probability":0.58,"reasoning":"Funding 8h = 0.0001 (0.01%) is neutral, no extreme positioning trigger (|rate|<0.05%). ETH OI $3.23B shows no capitulation. No named positioning reason to move beyond base rate; slight downward adjustment -0.01 for neutral-to-complacent ETH vol regime.","key_uncertainty":"OI is ETH-only here; missing SOL-side positioning data limits conviction."},{"name":"Event-Driven Elena","method":"event-driven","anchor":0.571,"probability":0.62,"reasoning":"Dense macro calendar inside horizon: FOMC Minutes 10/07, CPI 10/14, PPI/Retail 10/15, FOMC 10/28, GDP/PCE 10/29. Macro shocks tend to amplify high-beta SOL vol more than ETH (SOL's higher beta to risk sentiment). This is a named reason (a) supporting sign persistence, +0.05.","key_uncertainty":"Macro shocks could equally trigger ETH-specific flight-to-quality dynamics, compressing SOL's premium."},{"name":"Devil's Advocate Dana","method":"devil's advocate","anchor":0.571,"probability":0.5,"reasoning":"Persistence 0.571 is barely above coin-flip; over 26 days with mean-reverting vol, the gap can close. ETH vol at 0.4033 is low — any ETH catalyst (ETF, upgrade, regulatory clarity) could spike ETH vol toward SOL's level, flipping the sign. Recent Polymarket ETH price markets show sharp swings (±26 pts/24h), indicating unstable ETH regime. Adjust -0.07 from base.","key_uncertainty":"Base rate sample may be dominated by a regime where SOL vol premium was unusually persistent; regime change risk is underweighted."}],"summary":"YES is favored because SOL's 30d realized vol is 0.6158 vs ETH 0.4033 (+0.2125), and the base-rate persistence of that sign is 0.571; dense macro events inside the horizon likely amplify high-beta SOL vol more than ETH. The panel mean (0.586) is modestly above the run mean (0.570), while Dana's 0.50 and the low run near 0.513 cap conviction, so I land at 0.579.","drivers":["[object Object]","[object Object]","[object Object]","[object Object]","[object Object]"],"failure_modes":[],"confidence":"medium","cost":{"prompt":114519,"completion":28612,"calls":75},"commitment_hash":"aff8f5e9bd9c18aee11aa8acd33df3fb158e7afaba5d0b7c656c20f7bdfe52e1","market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"edge":null,"base_rate":0.571,"edge_vs_base":0.008,"config":{"runs":6,"population":20,"rounds":3,"capped":false},"context_used":{"as_of":"2026-10-04 06:03 UTC","asset":"ETH","spot":2694.425,"target":null,"distance_pct":null,"horizon_days":26,"realized_vol_30d_ann":0.4033,"implied_move_pct":null,"z_to_target":null,"funding_8h":0.0001,"open_interest_usd":3231432182,"market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"base_rate":0.571,"base_rate_note":"measured persistence of sign(rvol30 SOL − rvol30 ETH) over 25d: 0.571 (n=180 overlapping samples, last 180d of Hyperliquid 1d candles); today SOL 0.6158 vs ETH 0.4033","upcoming_events":["2026-10-07: FOMC Minutes","2026-10-14: Consumer Price Index (CPI)","2026-10-15: Producer Price Index (PPI)","2026-10-15: Advance Monthly Retail Sales","2026-10-28: FOMC Rate Decision + Statement","2026-10-29: GDP Q3 (Advance)","2026-10-29: Personal Income & Outlays (PCE inflation)"],"recent_events":["Polymarket: \"Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 2?\" → Yes 0% (-39 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 2?\" → Yes 67% (+26 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?\" → Yes 0% (-23 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?\" → Yes 1% (-22 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?\" → Yes 1% (-22 pts/24h)"],"extra":{"provider":{"rvol_sol_eth":"hyperliquid_1d_candles"},"sol_realized_vol_30d_ann":0.6158,"eth_realized_vol_30d_ann":0.4033,"sol_minus_eth_vol":0.2125,"rvol_persistence":0.571,"rvol_persistence_n":180,"rvol_persistence_h_days":25},"sources":["price_for","derivs_for","impact_for","calendar","rvol_sol_eth"],"sources_unavailable":[]},"engine_version":"0.3.3-ts","disclaimer":"Information and analytics only — not investment advice. Probabilities are model outputs with a public Brier track record at /v1/oracle/track-record."}