{"status":"done","id":"6b8f2f8b2086","question":"Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?","created_at":"2026-10-03T06:14:19.898Z","resolves_at":"2026-10-05T03:59:00Z","routing":{"domain":"politics","method":"hybrid","human_driven":true,"binary":true,"rationale":"Brazilian presidential first-round outright win is determined by aggregate voter behavior; market odds 0.046 imply ~4.6% probability, consistent with historically fragmented multi-candidate fields requiring a runoff."},"probability":0.056,"ci80":[0.046,0.0727],"disagreement":0.0109,"runs":[{"seed":42,"probability":0.054,"belief_trajectory":[0.0703,0.0638,0.0618,0.0575],"polarization":0.0326,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":43,"probability":0.0727,"belief_trajectory":[0.0955,0.0871,0.0803,0.076],"polarization":0.0539,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":44,"probability":0.0608,"belief_trajectory":[0.073,0.0707,0.0678,0.0645],"polarization":0.037,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":45,"probability":0.0508,"belief_trajectory":[0.0613,0.0588,0.0556,0.0521],"polarization":0.0142,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":46,"probability":0.0572,"belief_trajectory":[0.0659,0.0615,0.0598,0.0574],"polarization":0.0313,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":47,"probability":0.0798,"belief_trajectory":[0.0933,0.0883,0.0871,0.0849],"polarization":0.0494,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]}],"panel":[{"name":"Dr. Reference","method":"outside view / reference class","anchor":0.046,"probability":0.046,"reasoning":"Base rate = market_odds 0.046. Brazilian presidential first-round outright wins are historically rare: 1994, 1998, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 all went to a runoff except 1994 (Cardoso 54%) and 1998 (Cardoso 53%). So ~2/8 = 25% historically, but current field fragmentation and Lula/Bolsonaro-style polarization typically forces runoff. Market at 4.6% implies strong two-way race. No calendar event inside 2-day horizon (FOMC Minutes 10/07 is after resolution). No funding/positioning data provided. Stay at anchor.","key_uncertainty":"Whether a third candidate surges or a major candidate exceeds 50% polling."},{"name":"Inside View","method":"inside view","anchor":0.046,"probability":0.052,"reasoning":"Starting from 0.046. Inside view: if polls show a dominant incumbent or a unified opposition with >50% in final surveys, first-round win becomes plausible. However, no polling data in context, and Brazilian multi-party system (30+ parties) structurally fragments first round. Small upward adjustment of +0.6pp because market at 4.6% may underweight a late-surge scenario, but capped well within tail rule (x2.0 of 0.046 odds = 0.088).","key_uncertainty":"Absence of polling data; unknown candidate field."},{"name":"Trend & Positioning","method":"trend & positioning","anchor":0.046,"probability":0.046,"reasoning":"No funding_8h, open interest, or flow data provided in market context. Without positioning signal, cannot justify a move. Polymarket thin markets on Brazilian politics often misprice low-probability tails, but no named reason (a/b/c) applies. Hold at base rate 0.046.","key_uncertainty":"No positioning data available; thin liquidity could mean stale price."},{"name":"Event-Driven","method":"event-driven / calendar","anchor":0.046,"probability":0.043,"reasoning":"Upcoming events (FOMC, CPI, PPI, GDP) are all US macro, irrelevant to Brazilian electoral first-round outcome. No scheduled Brazilian electoral event inside the 2-day horizon (resolution 2026-10-05). Calendar gives no named reason to move. Slight downward nudge (-0.3pp) because absence of any catalyst before resolution means the status quo (runoff likely) persists. Within x0.5..x2.0 band.","key_uncertainty":"Any last-minute poll release or candidate withdrawal not in calendar."},{"name":"Devil's Advocate","method":"devil's advocate","anchor":0.046,"probability":0.06,"reasoning":"Challenge the consensus: markets at 4.6% may be too low. In 2022, polls showed Lula near 50% and he won first round with 48.4% (close). If a similar dynamic exists in 2026 with a strong incumbent, first-round win probability could be 8-10%. But market_odds differ from historical base rate (25%) by >10 points, which per rule (c) means market knows something — likely a fragmented field. Adjust upward modestly to 6% to reflect tail mispricing, staying within x2.0 of anchor odds (0.088 cap).","key_uncertainty":"Whether market is underreacting to a possible dominant-candidate scenario."}],"summary":"Market odds anchor at 4.6%, but panel and simulation runs cluster around 5.6% in log-odds terms, so the calibrated YES probability is 5.6%. Brazil's fragmented multi-party field and recent runoff history keep an outright first-round win a low-probability tail.","drivers":["Market anchor 0.046; panel/runs log-odds centre ~0.056","Historical Brazilian runoffs: only 1994/1998 outright wins in recent era","No Brazilian electoral catalyst before resolution; US macro calendar irrelevant","No polling/positioning data; thin Polymarket tail may be stale","Panel spread small (0.011) and runs slightly above market"],"failure_modes":["YES world: late poll surge or major candidate >50% polling forces first-round win","YES world: opposition fragmentation reduces runoff pressure","NO world: two-way race and multi-party system force runoff","NO world: market liquidity/stale price misstates true probability"],"confidence":"medium","cost":{"prompt":89169,"completion":28626,"calls":76},"commitment_hash":"df0ea79c39cabc2c88c0bd58f67f8714ec8825f3a1d6c12c8ec47c4e490807e9","market_odds":0.046,"market_ref":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-presidential-candidate-win-outright-in-the-first-round-of-the-brazil-election","edge":0.01,"base_rate":null,"edge_vs_base":null,"config":{"runs":6,"population":20,"rounds":3,"capped":false},"context_used":{"as_of":"2026-10-03 06:11 UTC","asset":null,"spot":null,"target":null,"distance_pct":null,"horizon_days":null,"realized_vol_30d_ann":null,"implied_move_pct":null,"z_to_target":null,"funding_8h":null,"open_interest_usd":null,"market_odds":0.046,"market_ref":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-presidential-candidate-win-outright-in-the-first-round-of-the-brazil-election","base_rate":null,"base_rate_note":"","upcoming_events":["2026-10-07: FOMC Minutes","2026-10-14: Consumer Price Index (CPI)","2026-10-15: Producer Price Index (PPI)","2026-10-15: Advance Monthly Retail Sales","2026-10-28: FOMC Rate Decision + Statement","2026-10-29: GDP Q3 (Advance)","2026-10-29: Personal Income & Outlays (PCE inflation)","2026-11-03: JOLTS"],"recent_events":[],"extra":{},"sources":["polymarket_context","calendar"],"sources_unavailable":[]},"engine_version":"0.3.3-ts","disclaimer":"Information and analytics only — not investment advice. Probabilities are model outputs with a public Brier track record at /v1/oracle/track-record.","grounding_shadow":{"premises":[{"claim":"Brazil's 2026 general election first round is scheduled for October 4, 2026","entity":"Brazil general election 2026","kind":"scheduled_event","query":"Brazil 2026 general election first round date","verified":true,"fact":"Brazil general election 2026: Brazil: Meet the Candidates 2026 - Americas Quarterly (Mon, 03 Aug 2026 07:00:00 GMT); Lula's lead over Flavio Bolsonaro narrows in Brazilian election second-round, CNT/MDA poll shows - Reuters (Tue, 11 Aug 2026 07:00:00 GMT); Brazil’s 2026 Elections: Institutional Design, Electoral Technology, and Democratic Integrity - Inter-American Dialogue (Mon, 27 Jul 2026 07:00:00 GMT)","source_url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE4ySlZkZk1URE1ZM1NhTWtWZXlBOVNxSE03Y3VMampYWXgzbWRMVmZFNEdubEFBQkdZcS1kd1V0RW9XRlhES0tFbksyVXMzSFBmWm5uZ2dHMlJNcVJoSWVHa1VUZzhiRE11alpqXzJpZGpKYWJqdDQtR3NZS05hTWc?oc=5","retrieved_at":"2026-10-03T06:11:27.758Z","data":{}},{"claim":"The current President of Brazil is Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva","entity":"President of Brazil","kind":"office_holder","query":"current President of Brazil 2026","verified":false,"fact":"","source_url":"","retrieved_at":"2026-10-03T06:11:27.758Z","data":{}},{"claim":"Lula is a candidate in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election","entity":"Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva","kind":"status","query":"Lula 2026 presidential candidate Brazil","verified":true,"fact":"Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: born 1945-10-27, age 80; alive; current positions: President of Brazil","source_url":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37181","retrieved_at":"2026-10-03T06:11:27.758Z","data":{"name":"Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva","qid":"Q37181","birth_date":"1945-10-27","death_date":null,"current_positions":["President of Brazil"],"url":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37181"}},{"claim":"Brazilian presidential elections require an outright majority (50%+1 of valid votes) to win in the first round","entity":"Brazilian electoral system","kind":"other","query":"Brazil presidential election first round outright majority rule","verified":false,"fact":"","source_url":"","retrieved_at":"2026-10-03T06:11:27.758Z","data":{}}],"status":"partial","corrected_question":null,"warnings":["unverified premise: The current President of Brazil is Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva","unverified premise: Brazilian presidential elections require an outright majority (50%+1 of valid votes) to win in the first round"],"actuarial_base_rate":null,"actuarial_note":""}}