{"status":"done","id":"6dc86f945d19","question":"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?","created_at":"2026-10-04T06:37:40.925Z","resolves_at":"2026-10-29T03:59:00.000Z","routing":{"domain":"finance","method":"hybrid","human_driven":true,"binary":true,"rationale":"FOMC rate decision is a committee vote driven by aggregate human judgment on macro data; market-implied odds 0.0045 indicate near-zero probability of a 25bp cut at the Oct 28 2026 meeting."},"probability":0.01,"ci80":[0.01,0.0463],"disagreement":0.0143,"runs":[{"seed":42,"probability":0.0463,"belief_trajectory":[0.0781,0.0669,0.0552,0.0513],"polarization":0.0596,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":43,"probability":0.0317,"belief_trajectory":[0.046,0.0408,0.0367,0.0332],"polarization":0.0328,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":44,"probability":0.02,"belief_trajectory":[0.0268,0.0266,0.0247,0.0217],"polarization":0.0168,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":45,"probability":0.0177,"belief_trajectory":[0.0265,0.0241,0.0227,0.0211],"polarization":0.0266,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":46,"probability":0.0258,"belief_trajectory":[0.0413,0.0361,0.032,0.0285],"polarization":0.0313,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":47,"probability":0.0506,"belief_trajectory":[0.0799,0.0736,0.0663,0.056],"polarization":0.0889,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]}],"panel":[{"name":"OutsideView","method":"reference class","anchor":0.0045,"probability":0.01,"reasoning":"Base rate is the market itself: Polymarket prices a 25bp cut at the October 2026 meeting at 0.45%. No named calendar event, positioning extreme, or market/base divergence justifies moving off a deep tail; the FOMC decision is inside the horizon but cutting 25bp from an unspecified level is not evidenced.","key_uncertainty":"Whether the Fed is already in an easing cycle by Oct 2026, which would raise the base rate."},{"name":"InsideView","method":"inside view","anchor":0.0045,"probability":0.01,"reasoning":"CPI (10-14) and PPI (10-15) land before the meeting; only a sharp disinflation surprise would force a cut. Probability of a >0.3pp downside CPI miss plus a Fed reaction is small, so I nudge modestly to ~0.6%.","key_uncertainty":"Actual inflation trajectory and Fed reaction function in late 2026."},{"name":"TrendPositioning","method":"trend & positioning","anchor":0.0045,"probability":0.01,"reasoning":"No funding_8h or open-interest data supplied; positioning signal absent. Absent a named extreme, stay at anchor.","key_uncertainty":"Missing positioning data could hide a squeeze."},{"name":"EventDriven","method":"event-driven","anchor":0.0045,"probability":0.01,"reasoning":"Upcoming events (CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, FOMC minutes) are all inside the horizon and could shift odds, but none is a scheduled rate action. Small upward adjustment for event density; stays within tail bounds.","key_uncertainty":"Whether an intermeeting emergency cut precedes the October meeting."},{"name":"DevilsAdvocate","method":"devil's advocate","anchor":0.0045,"probability":0.01,"reasoning":"Argues the market may already overprice any cut; a 25bp cut after October is a tail-of-tail. If the Fed were cutting, it would more likely have done so by September, making October a hold. Push slightly below anchor.","key_uncertainty":"Regime shift to rapid easing if labor market cracks."}],"summary":"Market-implied odds are 0.45%, and while the simulation/panel centre is higher (naive mean 1.8%), the listed-market anchor dominates for this tail event. I calibrate to 0.75%, a small upward adjustment for event density and panel disagreement but not enough to drift toward optimistic societies.","drivers":["Polymarket anchor 0.0045 implies near-zero chance of a 25bp cut at the Oct 2026 FOMC.","Panel is uniformly 0.01 and runs average higher, but no named catalyst forces a cut.","Upcoming CPI/PPI/retail sales are inside horizon but only a sharp disinflation or labor crack would make October live.","No positioning/funding data supplied; EventDriven and InsideView only nudge modestly above anchor."],"failure_modes":["YES breaks if labor-market or inflation data deteriorate sharply before Oct 28, forcing an intermeeting or October cut.","NO breaks if market liquidity is thin and 0.45% understates a Fed already in an easing cycle or signaling one.","Model risk: if the Fed already cut in September, October follow-up odds could be higher than market."],"confidence":"medium","cost":{"prompt":89933,"completion":28859,"calls":75},"commitment_hash":"b94246372728eaa42113021a8d596926936011752164f30a6523a3ffcb10d9bf","market_odds":0.0045,"market_ref":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324030","edge":0.0055,"base_rate":null,"edge_vs_base":null,"config":{"runs":6,"population":20,"rounds":3,"capped":false},"context_used":{"as_of":"2026-10-04 06:34 UTC","asset":null,"spot":null,"target":null,"distance_pct":null,"horizon_days":null,"realized_vol_30d_ann":null,"implied_move_pct":null,"z_to_target":null,"funding_8h":null,"open_interest_usd":null,"market_odds":0.0045,"market_ref":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324030","base_rate":null,"base_rate_note":"","upcoming_events":["2026-10-07: FOMC Minutes","2026-10-14: Consumer Price Index (CPI)","2026-10-15: Producer Price Index (PPI)","2026-10-15: Advance Monthly Retail Sales","2026-10-28: FOMC Rate Decision + Statement","2026-10-29: GDP Q3 (Advance)","2026-10-29: Personal Income & Outlays (PCE inflation)","2026-11-03: JOLTS"],"recent_events":[],"extra":{},"sources":["polymarket_context","calendar"],"sources_unavailable":[]},"engine_version":"0.3.3-ts","disclaimer":"Information and analytics only — not investment advice. Probabilities are model outputs with a public Brier track record at /v1/oracle/track-record."}