{"status":"done","id":"6fc71fce390f","question":"Will ETH close below 2,350 USD on 2026-10-31 (Coinbase daily close, UTC)?","created_at":"2026-10-04T06:26:49.557Z","resolves_at":"2026-10-31T23:59:59.000Z","routing":{"domain":"crypto","method":"hybrid","human_driven":true,"binary":true,"rationale":"ETH price is an aggregate market outcome driven by trader positioning, macro reactions (FOMC/CPI), and narrative flows; z=-1.27, 26d horizon, base rate 10.3% below 2350. Human-driven reflexive market, not physical system."},"probability":0.16,"ci80":[0.1,0.2786],"disagreement":0.0675,"runs":[{"seed":42,"probability":0.3076,"belief_trajectory":[0.316,0.315,0.309,0.306],"polarization":0.0892,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":43,"probability":0.1834,"belief_trajectory":[0.1915,0.1925,0.1968,0.197],"polarization":0.1034,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":44,"probability":0.2786,"belief_trajectory":[0.296,0.2975,0.295,0.2875],"polarization":0.0967,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":45,"probability":0.2147,"belief_trajectory":[0.2255,0.2175,0.2195,0.2193],"polarization":0.1009,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":46,"probability":0.1515,"belief_trajectory":[0.18,0.173,0.165,0.1575],"polarization":0.0534,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":47,"probability":0.155,"belief_trajectory":[0.1815,0.1748,0.1723,0.1615],"polarization":0.0782,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]}],"panel":[{"name":"Reference Class","method":"outside view / driftless lognormal","anchor":0.103,"probability":0.1,"reasoning":"Base rate 0.103 is the driftless lognormal end-below probability at z=-1.27 over 26d. No named reason in calendar/positioning/market justifies moving: funding_8h=0.0001% is neutral (|rate|<<0.05%), OI is unremarkable, and no listed market_odds differ from base_rate by >10pts. Anchor stands.","key_uncertainty":"Fat tails / vol regime shift could make true P(below) exceed lognormal."},{"name":"Inside View","method":"fundamental / structural","anchor":0.103,"probability":0.11,"reasoning":"ETH at 2693 needs -12.75% in 26d. Realized vol 40.3% ann, implied move 10.76% to horizon; -12.75% is ~1.19x implied move, so a below-close requires roughly a 1.2-sigma downside move — modestly more likely than the z-based base rate once fat left-tail skew is acknowledged. Adjust +1pt only.","key_uncertainty":"Crypto return skewness; stablecoin/regulatory shock absent from calendar."},{"name":"Trend & Positioning","method":"derivs / flows","anchor":0.103,"probability":0.09,"reasoning":"Funding 0.0001% (1bp/8h) is flat-to-mildly-positive, no crowded short or long. OI $3.23B is normal. Recent Polymarket prints show ETH whipsawing around 2700 with 'above 2700' resolving 0% then 67% — high noise, no persistent downside positioning. No named reason to move up; slight downward nudge because no capitulation setup.","key_uncertainty":"Hidden spot ETF/whale flows not in dataset."},{"name":"Event-Driven","method":"calendar","anchor":0.103,"probability":0.13,"reasoning":"Dense macro calendar inside horizon: CPI 10/14, PPI/retail 10/15, FOMC 10/28, GDP+PCE 10/29 — all within 3 days of resolution. Two-sided event risk (hot CPI or hawkish FOMC could push ETH toward 2350), but symmetric-ish; net +3pts for elevated realized-vol clustering into the window.","key_uncertainty":"Sign of macro surprise; ETH beta to rates is unstable."},{"name":"Devil's Advocate","method":"adversarial","anchor":0.103,"probability":0.16,"reasoning":"Challenges the calm base rate: 26d horizon, 40% ann vol, and a cluster of tier-1 events in the final 72h. A single -13% week (common in crypto) resolves below. Base rate likely understates tail because lognormal ignores jump risk and the market is pricing only 10.76% implied move. Still, no named positioning/calendar reason justifies breaching the x2 tail cap (0.206 odds ceiling); 0.16 stays within x0.5..x2.0 of anchor odds.","key_uncertainty":"Whether a jump-risk regime actually materializes; otherwise this is overfit to crypto folklore."}],"summary":"Base-rate lognormal gives 10.3% for ETH closing below $2,350, but the 26-day window contains heavy macro-event clustering and crypto's fat left tail; the simulation/panel log-odds centre is ~0.161. I keep the final at 0.16, not drifting to the higher run mean (~0.215), because flat funding/OI and the panel's reference-class view do not independently confirm a downside regime.","drivers":["Base rate: z=-1.27 over 26d, driftless lognormal P(below)=0.103; distance -12.75% vs implied move 10.76%","Event-driven risk: CPI 10/14, PPI/retail 10/15, FOMC 10/28, GDP/PCE 10/29 cluster inside horizon","Fat-tail/skew adjustment: crypto jump risk makes lognormal base slightly understate downside tail","Positioning: funding 0.0001%/8h and OI ~$3.23B are neutral, no crowded short/long signal","Simulation/panel log-odds centre: Naive mean 0.161; panel mean lower (~0.118), run mean higher (~0.215) — divergence kept visible"],"failure_modes":[],"confidence":"medium","cost":{"prompt":109332,"completion":30052,"calls":76},"commitment_hash":"3e448d0298471248ca0098bb739d04e5cc4755373413e8759fd69f160c501933","market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"edge":null,"base_rate":0.103,"edge_vs_base":0.057,"config":{"runs":6,"population":20,"rounds":3,"capped":false},"context_used":{"as_of":"2026-10-04 06:23 UTC","asset":"ETH","spot":2693.45,"target":2350,"distance_pct":-12.75,"horizon_days":26,"realized_vol_30d_ann":0.4033,"implied_move_pct":10.76,"z_to_target":-1.27,"funding_8h":0.0001,"open_interest_usd":3230052179,"market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"base_rate":0.103,"base_rate_note":"complement (question asks BELOW); driftless lognormal end-above probability; z=-1.27 sigmas over 26d","upcoming_events":["2026-10-07: FOMC Minutes","2026-10-14: Consumer Price Index (CPI)","2026-10-15: Producer Price Index (PPI)","2026-10-15: Advance Monthly Retail Sales","2026-10-28: FOMC Rate Decision + Statement","2026-10-29: GDP Q3 (Advance)","2026-10-29: Personal Income & Outlays (PCE inflation)"],"recent_events":["Polymarket: \"Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 2?\" → Yes 0% (-39 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 2?\" → Yes 67% (+26 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?\" → Yes 0% (-23 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?\" → Yes 1% (-22 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?\" → Yes 1% (-22 pts/24h)"],"extra":{},"sources":["price_for","derivs_for","impact_for","calendar"],"sources_unavailable":[]},"engine_version":"0.3.3-ts","disclaimer":"Information and analytics only — not investment advice. Probabilities are model outputs with a public Brier track record at /v1/oracle/track-record."}