{"status":"done","id":"733a6ed23f43","question":"Will ETH close above 2,850 USD on 2026-10-31 (Coinbase daily close, UTC)?","created_at":"2026-10-04T06:23:59.150Z","resolves_at":"2026-10-31T23:59:59.000Z","routing":{"domain":"crypto","method":"hybrid","human_driven":true,"binary":true,"rationale":"ETH price is an aggregate market outcome driven by trader positioning, macro narratives, and event reactions (FOMC, CPI, PCE). Base rate 30.2% at z=0.52; implied move 10.76% vs 5.74% distance; funding flat, OI $3.2B. Binary close-above 2850 on 2026-10-31."},"probability":0.315,"ci80":[0.29,0.36],"disagreement":0.0421,"runs":[{"seed":42,"probability":0.3086,"belief_trajectory":[0.3515,0.351,0.339,0.3275],"polarization":0.1079,"flipped":2,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":43,"probability":0.4235,"belief_trajectory":[0.445,0.4433,0.4293,0.4218],"polarization":0.1099,"flipped":2,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":44,"probability":0.317,"belief_trajectory":[0.3445,0.336,0.329,0.322],"polarization":0.0914,"flipped":3,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":45,"probability":0.3045,"belief_trajectory":[0.3375,0.3238,0.312,0.3057],"polarization":0.0624,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":46,"probability":0.307,"belief_trajectory":[0.3325,0.332,0.3245,0.318],"polarization":0.0791,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":47,"probability":0.3375,"belief_trajectory":[0.3575,0.359,0.353,0.3465],"polarization":0.1017,"flipped":4,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]}],"panel":[{"name":"Reference Class Rachel","method":"outside view / driftless lognormal","anchor":0.302,"probability":0.3,"reasoning":"Start at base_rate 0.302 (z=0.52 sigmas over 26d, 40.3% ann vol). No named reason to move: funding 0.0001 is flat (not |rate|>0.05%), OI ~$3.2B unremarkable, no market_odds listed for this strike, calendar events are macro but symmetric. 5.74% distance with 10.76% implied move is genuinely near-coinflip territory; hold the anchor.","key_uncertainty":"Whether realized vol stays near 40% ann or expands around FOMC/CPI."},{"name":"Inside View Ivan","method":"inside view / recent price action","anchor":0.302,"probability":0.36,"reasoning":"ETH spot 2695 sits above the 2700 pivot that Polymarket swung from 0% to 67% on in 24h, showing fragile but positive momentum. Need +5.74% in 26d, which at 40% ann vol is ~0.52 sigma; recent chop resolved upward. Adjust +6pts for constructive tape and the fact spot recovered the 2700 handle.","key_uncertainty":"Momentum is thin; a single CPI/FOMC surprise can erase the 5.7% buffer."},{"name":"Trend & Positioning Tessa","method":"positioning / funding, OI, flows","anchor":0.302,"probability":0.29,"reasoning":"Funding 0.0001% (8h) is essentially neutral-to-slightly-long, no crowding. OI $3.23B is moderate, no squeeze setup. No extreme positioning to justify a >0.05% funding move or OI extreme. Slight -1pt for neutral-to-soft funding offering no upside fuel into a 5.7% rally.","key_uncertainty":"OI could spike into FOMC 10/28, creating two-way vol without directional edge."},{"name":"Event-Driven Eve","method":"event-driven / calendar","anchor":0.302,"probability":0.33,"reasoning":"Dense macro calendar inside horizon: CPI 10/14, PPI/Retail 10/15, FOMC 10/28, GDP/PCE 10/29. FOMC decision lands 3 days before resolution — a dovish surprise is a plausible +5.7% catalyst, a hawkish one kills it. Net +3pts for the two-sided but historically post-FOMC relief-rally tendency; events raise variance, not the mean much.","key_uncertainty":"FOMC 10/28 outcome and its 72h transmission into the 10/31 close."},{"name":"Devil's Advocate Dana","method":"devil's advocate / tail discipline","anchor":0.302,"probability":0.25,"reasoning":"Challenge the constructive adjustments: the question needs a close ABOVE 2850, not a touch, and 0.52 sigma is not a favorite. Polymarket 2700-strike churn (0% then 67%) shows how easily ETH loses the 2700 handle — a dip below 2700 makes 2850 require >5.5% recovery. Driftless base rate 0.302 is the honest number; momentum and event adjustments are narrative. Trim to 0.25 (-5pts) for the asymmetry of needing a sustained breakout against a heavy macro calendar.","key_uncertainty":"Whether the 2850 level acts as resistance that caps a rally, making an end-above close rarer than the lognormal implies."}],"summary":"Base rate at z=0.52 sigmas over 26 days is 30.2%, and the panel median sits near 30-31% while the simulation mean is pulled up to ~33% by one optimistic run. Flat funding/OI and a dense but two-sided macro calendar argue against a large directional shift, so I keep the final near 31.5%, a small upward adjustment from the driftless anchor.","drivers":["Driftless lognormal base rate 30.2% (z=0.52, 26d, 40.3% ann vol)","Simulation runs mean ~33% but median ~31-32%; one 42% outlier inflates the mean","Panel mean ~30.6%: Inside View +6 pts vs Devil's Advocate -5 pts, mostly symmetric","Funding 0.0001%/8h and OI $3.23B show no positioning edge or squeeze fuel","Macro calendar (CPI 10/14, FOMC 10/28, GDP/PCE 10/29) raises variance; net mean effect near zero","Spot 2695.3 is just below 2700 and 5.74% from target; recent Polymarket churn signals fragile momentum"],"failure_modes":["YES world breaks if a dovish FOMC/CPI surprise after 10/28 produces a >5.7% rally into 10/31; options-implied move is already 10.8%, so a single event can cover the distance.","NO world breaks if ETH cannot hold 2700 and a hawkish macro surprise pushes it below 2600, making 2850 require a >9% recovery with no positioning support."],"confidence":"medium","cost":{"prompt":107555,"completion":30407,"calls":75},"commitment_hash":"ce92ca03c4fbf7f3d513e09833f9a3b28236952445edf90fa77def0d845fb29c","market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"edge":null,"base_rate":0.302,"edge_vs_base":0.013,"config":{"runs":6,"population":20,"rounds":3,"capped":false},"context_used":{"as_of":"2026-10-04 06:21 UTC","asset":"ETH","spot":2695.3,"target":2850,"distance_pct":5.74,"horizon_days":26,"realized_vol_30d_ann":0.4033,"implied_move_pct":10.76,"z_to_target":0.52,"funding_8h":0.0001,"open_interest_usd":3232792841,"market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"base_rate":0.302,"base_rate_note":"driftless lognormal end-above probability; z=0.52 sigmas over 26d","upcoming_events":["2026-10-07: FOMC Minutes","2026-10-14: Consumer Price Index (CPI)","2026-10-15: Producer Price Index (PPI)","2026-10-15: Advance Monthly Retail Sales","2026-10-28: FOMC Rate Decision + Statement","2026-10-29: GDP Q3 (Advance)","2026-10-29: Personal Income & Outlays (PCE inflation)"],"recent_events":["Polymarket: \"Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 2?\" → Yes 0% (-39 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 2?\" → Yes 67% (+26 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?\" → Yes 0% (-23 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?\" → Yes 1% (-22 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?\" → Yes 1% (-22 pts/24h)"],"extra":{},"sources":["price_for","derivs_for","impact_for","calendar"],"sources_unavailable":[]},"engine_version":"0.3.3-ts","disclaimer":"Information and analytics only — not investment advice. Probabilities are model outputs with a public Brier track record at /v1/oracle/track-record."}