{"status":"done","id":"808df0d9c1e1","question":"Will BTC close below 78,500 USD on 2026-10-31 (Coinbase daily close, UTC)?","created_at":"2026-10-04T06:21:09.247Z","resolves_at":"2026-10-31T23:59:59.000Z","routing":{"domain":"crypto","method":"hybrid","human_driven":true,"binary":true,"rationale":"BTC price is an aggregate market outcome driven by trader behavior, macro narratives, and event reactions (FOMC, CPI, PCE). Resolution is a binary price-close threshold; base rate 21.7% below 78,500 with z=-0.78 over 26d, but event-heavy calendar raises tail risk."},"probability":0.232,"ci80":[0.17,0.2622],"disagreement":0.0382,"runs":[{"seed":42,"probability":0.2718,"belief_trajectory":[0.271,0.2708,0.27,0.272],"polarization":0.0763,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":43,"probability":0.231,"belief_trajectory":[0.2405,0.241,0.2427,0.2383],"polarization":0.0999,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":44,"probability":0.2622,"belief_trajectory":[0.2805,0.276,0.2672,0.2685],"polarization":0.102,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":45,"probability":0.231,"belief_trajectory":[0.235,0.2345,0.235,0.2363],"polarization":0.0899,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":46,"probability":0.243,"belief_trajectory":[0.2535,0.2555,0.2515,0.25],"polarization":0.0564,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":47,"probability":0.2335,"belief_trajectory":[0.2345,0.23,0.231,0.2325],"polarization":0.0929,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]}],"panel":[{"name":"R1-OutsideView","method":"reference class","anchor":0.217,"probability":0.2,"reasoning":"Driftless lognormal end-below probability at z=-0.78 over 26d gives 21.7% base rate; realized vol 37.65% ann is the calibration input. No adjustment beyond base except mild fat-tail asymmetry: crypto downside tails are heavier than lognormal, so nudge down to 0.20.","key_uncertainty":"Whether 30d realized vol (0.376) understates the true 26d forward vol."},{"name":"R2-InsideView","method":"inside view","anchor":0.217,"probability":0.17,"reasoning":"Spot 84,914, target 78,500 is -7.55%; implied move 10.05% means target sits inside 1 implied sigma. Funding 8h at +0.0001% is neutral, OI $3.15B is unremarkable — no forced-liquidation fuel. Recent Polymarket prints show BTC pinned above 84k with collapsing upside bets, i.e., range-bound, not crashing. Lower to 0.17.","key_uncertainty":"A macro shock could compress the range violently; inside view has no edge on timing."},{"name":"R3-TrendPositioning","method":"trend & positioning","anchor":0.217,"probability":0.19,"reasoning":"Funding near zero and OI flat = no crowded long to unwind, so no mechanical cascade toward 78.5k. But Polymarket 'above 86k' collapsing to 0-1% shows upside momentum dead — a stalled market can drift down. Net roughly base rate, 0.19.","key_uncertainty":"Whether the dead-upside regime resolves down rather than sideways."},{"name":"R4-EventDriven","method":"event-driven calendar","anchor":0.217,"probability":0.24,"reasoning":"Dense macro calendar inside horizon: FOMC Minutes 10/07, CPI 10/14, PPI/Retail 10/15, FOMC decision 10/28, GDP+PCE 10/29. Two FOMC events plus CPI/PCE raise the probability of a volatility-expanding risk-off leg. Named reason (a): scheduled events inside horizon. Adjust +2.3pts to 0.24.","key_uncertainty":"Whether macro surprises are hawkish (down) or dovish (up); direction unhedged."},{"name":"R5-DevilsAdvocate","method":"devil's advocate","anchor":0.217,"probability":0.14,"reasoning":"Challenges the bearish tilt: 26 days is short, and a -7.55% move requires a genuine regime break, not drift. No listed event is a known BTC-negative catalyst, positioning is clean, and the market's own odds imply BTC comfortably above 84k. To reach 78.5k needs a >2-sigma downside day cluster. Cut to 0.14.","key_uncertainty":"Black-swan macro or exchange event that the calendar cannot name."}],"summary":"Base rate is 21.7% from a driftless lognormal at z=-0.78 over 26 days; simulation runs cluster near 24.5% while the human panel is lower near 18.8%, so I nudge modestly above base. Dense macro events and fat downside tails justify a small upward adjustment, but neutral funding/OI and recent range-bound price action cap the move.","drivers":["z_to_target -0.78, distance -7.55%, horizon 26d","realized vol 37.65% ann, implied move 10.05%; target inside 1 sigma","dense calendar: FOMC Minutes, CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, FOMC decision, GDP, PCE","funding 8h +0.0001% and OI $3.15B are neutral; no forced-liquidation fuel","recent Polymarket range-bound: above 84k ~100%, above 86k 0-1%","simulation runs mean ~0.245 vs panel mean ~0.188; event-driven panel at 0.24"],"failure_modes":[],"confidence":"medium","cost":{"prompt":107090,"completion":29749,"calls":75},"commitment_hash":"847d22819f103ab3285329823e7a3559a5cec88e70840301583f3961dacda891","market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"edge":null,"base_rate":0.217,"edge_vs_base":0.015,"config":{"runs":6,"population":20,"rounds":3,"capped":false},"context_used":{"as_of":"2026-10-04 06:18 UTC","asset":"BTC","spot":84914.305,"target":78500,"distance_pct":-7.55,"horizon_days":26,"realized_vol_30d_ann":0.3765,"implied_move_pct":10.05,"z_to_target":-0.78,"funding_8h":0.0001,"open_interest_usd":3149906783,"market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"base_rate":0.217,"base_rate_note":"complement (question asks BELOW); driftless lognormal end-above probability; z=-0.78 sigmas over 26d","upcoming_events":["2026-10-07: FOMC Minutes","2026-10-14: Consumer Price Index (CPI)","2026-10-15: Producer Price Index (PPI)","2026-10-15: Advance Monthly Retail Sales","2026-10-28: FOMC Rate Decision + Statement","2026-10-29: GDP Q3 (Advance)","2026-10-29: Personal Income & Outlays (PCE inflation)"],"recent_events":["Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 100% (+24 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3?\" → Up 0% (-41 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3?\" → Up 2% (-48 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 1% (-30 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 0% (-54 pts/24h)"],"extra":{},"sources":["price_for","derivs_for","impact_for","calendar"],"sources_unavailable":[]},"engine_version":"0.3.3-ts","disclaimer":"Information and analytics only — not investment advice. Probabilities are model outputs with a public Brier track record at /v1/oracle/track-record."}