{"status":"done","id":"951a6c484ad5","question":"Will Brazil's central bank (Copom) cut the Selic rate at its November 2026 meeting?","created_at":"2026-10-04T06:11:50.043Z","resolves_at":"2026-11-04T22:00:00Z","routing":{"domain":"finance","method":"hybrid","human_driven":true,"binary":true,"rationale":"Copom decision is a committee vote (human-driven) but anchored in data-driven inflation/growth models; market pricing and narratives influence but do not determine. Binary: cut vs no cut at 2026-11-04 meeting."},"probability":0.32,"ci80":[0.2,0.5188],"disagreement":0.1373,"runs":[{"seed":42,"probability":0.3902,"belief_trajectory":[0.436,0.422,0.408,0.395],"polarization":0.1095,"flipped":3,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":43,"probability":0.4669,"belief_trajectory":[0.493,0.495,0.4895,0.4795],"polarization":0.1237,"flipped":3,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":44,"probability":0.4234,"belief_trajectory":[0.456,0.448,0.437,0.4315],"polarization":0.1022,"flipped":3,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":45,"probability":0.5188,"belief_trajectory":[0.5265,0.5255,0.523,0.522],"polarization":0.082,"flipped":2,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":46,"probability":0.5227,"belief_trajectory":[0.5275,0.526,0.526,0.524],"polarization":0.1376,"flipped":3,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":47,"probability":0.4735,"belief_trajectory":[0.4855,0.4845,0.4875,0.48],"polarization":0.1252,"flipped":3,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]}],"panel":[{"name":"Reference Class","method":"outside view","anchor":"no base_rate or market_odds supplied; historical frequency: Copom cut at ~38% of meetings in easing cycles, ~12% in hiking cycles; 2026 cycle ambiguous -> use 0.20","probability":0.2,"reasoning":"No base_rate or market_odds in MARKET CONTEXT (selic_focus fetch failed). Historical Copom meeting-level cut frequency ~0.20 when policy stance uncertain. Anchor 0.20.","key_uncertainty":"Missing Selic Focus survey removes the single most informative input."},{"name":"Inside View","method":"inside view","anchor":0.2,"probability":0.22,"reasoning":"Anchor 0.20. +2pts: Brazil disinflation trend through 2026 typically enables cuts once IPCA converges; no named calendar event inside horizon (upcoming_events are all US). Adjustment small because no BR data listed.","key_uncertainty":"Brazilian inflation/growth data absent from context."},{"name":"Trend & Positioning","method":"trend & positioning","anchor":0.2,"probability":0.2,"reasoning":"Anchor 0.20. funding_8h and open interest not provided; no |rate|>0.05% signal to act on. No named positioning reason -> no adjustment.","key_uncertainty":"No funding/OI data surfaced."},{"name":"Event-Driven","method":"event-driven","anchor":0.2,"probability":0.2,"reasoning":"Anchor 0.20. Calendar (Oct 7 FOMC minutes through Nov 3 JOLTS) contains zero Copom-relevant events; meeting_date 2026-11-04 not in upcoming_events. No named reason to move.","key_uncertainty":"Copom calendar/communiqué not in feed."},{"name":"Devil's Advocate","method":"devil's advocate","anchor":0.2,"probability":0.18,"reasoning":"Anchor 0.20. -2pts: 2026 is a Brazilian election year; Copom historically avoids rate moves in the pre-election window (Oct-Nov), biasing toward hold. Within tail rule (0.20 stays in 0.08..0.26).","key_uncertainty":"Election-year caution is a heuristic, not confirmed by listed data."}],"summary":"Aggregated YES probability is 0.32: simulation runs cluster near 0.47 while a data-starved panel anchors near 0.20, so the final sits near the naive mean but below run optimism. Missing Selic Focus and zero Brazilian macro/calendar inputs keep confidence medium and leave election-year Copom caution as the main cap.","drivers":["Simulation run mean ~0.466 vs panel mean ~0.20; naive mean 0.330 is the centre of disagreement.","selic_focus fetch failed and no Brazilian inflation/growth/Copom calendar data in MARKET CONTEXT.","2026 Brazilian election-year caution biases Copom toward hold at the Nov-04 meeting.","Upcoming market events are US-only (FOMC, CPI, PPI, GDP, PCE, JOLTS), none directly Copom-relevant.","Trajectories are stable with no tipping rounds; flips 2-3 and spread 0.137 show unresolved divergence."],"failure_modes":["YES breaks if Copom holds on inflation risks, election-year caution, or lack of confirmed disinflation.","NO breaks if Brazilian disinflation/growth weakness forces a cut, or if market pricing not captured due unavailable Selic Focus already implies easing.","A surprise Brazilian fiscal/inflation shock or US spillover between Oct-04 and Nov-04 could flip the committee either way."],"confidence":"medium","cost":{"prompt":86285,"completion":29172,"calls":75},"commitment_hash":"61614f8f2f762c206d9705af9fd23b7b494868ad349696ebdbad5dc00cd63681","market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"edge":null,"base_rate":null,"edge_vs_base":null,"config":{"runs":6,"population":20,"rounds":3,"capped":false},"context_used":{"as_of":"2026-10-04 06:09 UTC","asset":null,"spot":null,"target":null,"distance_pct":null,"horizon_days":null,"realized_vol_30d_ann":null,"implied_move_pct":null,"z_to_target":null,"funding_8h":null,"open_interest_usd":null,"market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"base_rate":null,"base_rate_note":"","upcoming_events":["2026-10-07: FOMC Minutes","2026-10-14: Consumer Price Index (CPI)","2026-10-15: Producer Price Index (PPI)","2026-10-15: Advance Monthly Retail Sales","2026-10-28: FOMC Rate Decision + Statement","2026-10-29: GDP Q3 (Advance)","2026-10-29: Personal Income & Outlays (PCE inflation)","2026-11-03: JOLTS"],"recent_events":[],"extra":{},"sources":["calendar"],"sources_unavailable":["selic_focus: fetch failed"]},"engine_version":"0.3.3-ts","disclaimer":"Information and analytics only — not investment advice. Probabilities are model outputs with a public Brier track record at /v1/oracle/track-record."}