{"status":"done","id":"9dbef97ae039","question":"Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?","created_at":"2026-10-03T06:14:45.976Z","resolves_at":"2026-10-05T03:59:00Z","routing":{"domain":"politics","method":"hybrid","human_driven":true,"binary":true,"rationale":"Brazilian presidential first-round vote share is determined by aggregate voter behavior, campaign dynamics, and coalition narratives; market odds (0.745) reflect crowd-forecast consensus on a discrete binary outcome. No physical/data-driven system dominates, so social_sim applies."},"probability":0.73,"ci80":[0.6679,0.745],"disagreement":0.0407,"runs":[{"seed":42,"probability":0.6786,"belief_trajectory":[0.674,0.6795,0.6783,0.6805],"polarization":0.1233,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":43,"probability":0.6686,"belief_trajectory":[0.635,0.641,0.651,0.6575],"polarization":0.1801,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":44,"probability":0.7036,"belief_trajectory":[0.66,0.6695,0.6805,0.689],"polarization":0.1412,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":45,"probability":0.6679,"belief_trajectory":[0.651,0.6593,0.6647,0.6678],"polarization":0.1219,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":46,"probability":0.6829,"belief_trajectory":[0.654,0.662,0.672,0.6785],"polarization":0.1339,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":47,"probability":0.6322,"belief_trajectory":[0.6395,0.6365,0.632,0.6275],"polarization":0.1568,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]}],"panel":[{"name":"Reference Class Ranger","method":"outside view / reference class","anchor":0.745,"probability":0.72,"reasoning":"Market odds 0.745 is the only base rate given; no historical frequency supplied. Polymarket first-round plurality markets for incumbents with stable leads typically stay near anchor absent news. No scheduled event in upcoming_events touches Brazilian politics (all US macro), so no calendar adjustment. Adjust -2.5pp only for generic late-breaking risk priced imperfectly, keeping within tail-neutral band.","key_uncertainty":"Whether Polymarket anchor already fully prices first-round polling and rejection-risk."},{"name":"Inside View Analyst","method":"inside view","anchor":0.745,"probability":0.78,"reasoning":"Lula as incumbent typically leads first-round plurality; 2022 analog: Lula 48.4% first round, most votes. Bolsonaro ineligible until 2030 (TSE), fragmenting right. Adjust +3.5pp from anchor given structural incumbency and opposition fragmentation; capped under 15pp rule.","key_uncertainty":"Health/age risk and any unified right-wing challenger emerging before Oct 2026."},{"name":"Trend & Positioning Tracker","method":"trend & positioning","anchor":0.745,"probability":0.74,"reasoning":"No funding/OI/flows data supplied in market context; absence of extreme positioning signal means no named reason to move. Anchor 0.745 sits below 0.80 tail threshold, so no odds-ratio compression required. Hold essentially at anchor, -0.5pp for thin liquidity drift.","key_uncertainty":"Missing positioning data; market_odds may be stale or thin."},{"name":"Event-Driven Calendar","method":"event-driven (calendar)","anchor":0.745,"probability":0.745,"reasoning":"All upcoming_events are US macro (FOMC, CPI, PPI, GDP) — none are Brazilian political events inside horizon. Resolution is 2026-10-05, only 2 days out, before most listed events. No named calendar reason to move. Output anchor.","key_uncertainty":"Resolution timing relative to actual election date; no political catalyst listed."},{"name":"Devil's Advocate","method":"devil's advocate","anchor":0.745,"probability":0.68,"reasoning":"Market_odds 0.745 vs implied uncertainty: two days to resolution, no fresh polling, potential for late legal/challenge news or mispricing of a fragmented field. Adjust -6.5pp to reflect resolution-risk and possible anchor overconfidence, still within 15pp cap.","key_uncertainty":"Hidden late-breaking scandal or electoral court ruling."}],"summary":"Market anchor 0.745 and panel mean 0.733 support Lula winning the first-round plurality, but simulation runs average ~0.67 with some flips, so the calibrated probability sits modestly below the market. No Brazilian political catalyst appears in the listed calendar, making late-breaking health, legal, scandal, or opposition-consolidation news the main residual risk.","drivers":["Polymarket anchor 0.745 is the primary calibration point for Lula first-round plurality.","Panel mean 0.733: Inside View 0.78, Event/Trend ~0.74, Reference 0.72, Devil's Advocate 0.68.","Simulation runs average ~0.67 and include flip cases, signalling lower YES confidence than market/panel.","Structural incumbency and fragmented right (Bolsonaro ineligible until 2030) favour Lula.","Upcoming events are all US macro, not Brazilian political; resolution is only 2 days out."],"failure_modes":["YES breaks if late health/legal/scandal news, a unified right challenger, or polling error denies Lula a first-round plurality.","NO breaks if Lula maintains a clear lead, opposition stays fragmented, and the market/panel correctly price incumbency advantage."],"confidence":"medium","cost":{"prompt":89551,"completion":28582,"calls":76},"commitment_hash":"e53898a87509ebf22bfce16edf1a71f485a5d0abf8fda89232fd1ffdd0601c42","market_odds":0.745,"market_ref":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-lula-win-the-most-votes-in-the-first-round-of-the-2026-brazil-presidential-election","edge":-0.015,"base_rate":null,"edge_vs_base":null,"config":{"runs":6,"population":20,"rounds":3,"capped":false},"context_used":{"as_of":"2026-10-03 06:12 UTC","asset":null,"spot":null,"target":null,"distance_pct":null,"horizon_days":null,"realized_vol_30d_ann":null,"implied_move_pct":null,"z_to_target":null,"funding_8h":null,"open_interest_usd":null,"market_odds":0.745,"market_ref":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-lula-win-the-most-votes-in-the-first-round-of-the-2026-brazil-presidential-election","base_rate":null,"base_rate_note":"","upcoming_events":["2026-10-07: FOMC Minutes","2026-10-14: Consumer Price Index (CPI)","2026-10-15: Producer Price Index (PPI)","2026-10-15: Advance Monthly Retail Sales","2026-10-28: FOMC Rate Decision + Statement","2026-10-29: GDP Q3 (Advance)","2026-10-29: Personal Income & Outlays (PCE inflation)","2026-11-03: JOLTS"],"recent_events":[],"extra":{},"sources":["polymarket_context","calendar"],"sources_unavailable":[]},"engine_version":"0.3.3-ts","disclaimer":"Information and analytics only — not investment advice. Probabilities are model outputs with a public Brier track record at /v1/oracle/track-record.","grounding_shadow":{"premises":[{"claim":"Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the incumbent President of Brazil","entity":"Lula","kind":"office_holder","query":"Who is the current President of Brazil as of October 2026?","verified":true,"fact":"Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: born 1945-10-27, age 80; alive; current positions: President of Brazil","source_url":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37181","retrieved_at":"2026-10-03T06:11:55.774Z","data":{"name":"Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva","qid":"Q37181","birth_date":"1945-10-27","death_date":null,"current_positions":["President of Brazil"],"url":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37181"}},{"claim":"Lula is a candidate in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election","entity":"Lula","kind":"status","query":"Is Lula running in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","verified":true,"fact":"Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: born 1945-10-27, age 80; alive; current positions: President of Brazil","source_url":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37181","retrieved_at":"2026-10-03T06:11:55.774Z","data":{"name":"Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva","qid":"Q37181","birth_date":"1945-10-27","death_date":null,"current_positions":["President of Brazil"],"url":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37181"}},{"claim":"The first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is scheduled for October 4, 2026","entity":"2026 Brazilian presidential election","kind":"scheduled_event","query":"When is the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","verified":true,"fact":"2026 Brazilian presidential election: What kind of Brazil will emerge from this election? - Brookings (Wed, 30 Sep 2026 14:31:31 GMT); Brazil’s presidential election is more than just another polarized contest - Chatham House (Mon, 28 Sep 2026 12:51:50 GMT); Brazil's Lula widens first-round lead, remains tied with Bolsonaro in runoff polls - Reuters (Mon, 28 Sep 2026 13:56:56 GMT)","source_url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijwFBVV95cUxQN2FHaU13S0FHcXhpM1FsdWZycUNLb0ZkdEJrME5CbzZqQ21YQlpSZm9yVmNWeVFmOU1MdXNmTUIxR2dwNWdTR3MxQWdMRC02S3ZVcDJQbzJRLW1Xbm1ILTJxa3hlNE1Ja0FqaXJUeFFZN2p2X0V3c2JDWXAycldPMzFCdjU3RWZ1WjZXa0lUUQ?oc=5","retrieved_at":"2026-10-03T06:11:55.774Z","data":{}}],"status":"verified","corrected_question":"Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?  [grounded: 'Lula' = Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva]","warnings":[],"actuarial_base_rate":null,"actuarial_note":""}}