{"status":"done","id":"a0fec651acc1","question":"Will Bitcoin close above 120,000 USD on 2026-10-31 (Coinbase daily close, UTC)?","created_at":"2026-10-04T06:03:53.246Z","resolves_at":"2026-10-31T23:59:59Z","routing":{"domain":"crypto","method":"hybrid","human_driven":true,"binary":true,"rationale":"BTC price is an aggregate market outcome driven by trader positioning, narratives, and macro reactions; 41.3% move in 26d vs 37.7% ann vol (z=3.44) makes close above 120k very unlikely; base rate ~0.0003."},"probability":0.031,"ci80":[0.01,0.0985],"disagreement":0.0372,"runs":[{"seed":42,"probability":0.0691,"belief_trajectory":[0.079,0.0765,0.0745,0.0713],"polarization":0.0428,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":43,"probability":0.093,"belief_trajectory":[0.1066,0.104,0.102,0.0988],"polarization":0.0778,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":44,"probability":0.0519,"belief_trajectory":[0.0655,0.0645,0.061,0.0572],"polarization":0.0434,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":45,"probability":0.0525,"belief_trajectory":[0.0685,0.0648,0.0621,0.0584],"polarization":0.0424,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":46,"probability":0.0985,"belief_trajectory":[0.1185,0.1157,0.1107,0.1061],"polarization":0.0576,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":47,"probability":0.1021,"belief_trajectory":[0.1205,0.1213,0.1167,0.1104],"polarization":0.0897,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]}],"panel":[{"name":"OutsideView","method":"reference class","anchor":0,"probability":0.01,"reasoning":"Start from stated base_rate=0: driftless lognormal end-above prob at z=3.44 over 26d is ~0.0003. 30d realized vol 37.65% ann is modest; implied move 10.05% over horizon means 120k needs a ~3.4-sigma move. No drift, no positioning edge justifies lifting a pure tail much.","key_uncertainty":"Vol could expand on FOMC/CPI; fat tails in crypto exceed lognormal."},{"name":"InsideView","method":"inside view","anchor":0.0003,"probability":0.01,"reasoning":"Crypto tails are fatter than lognormal: 26d 41% rallies have occurred historically in bull regimes. But spot 84.9k with funding flat (0.0001) and no narrative catalyst visible; recent Polymarket prints show momentum DOWN (Up 0%/2%, $86k above collapsing). Inside view gives no bullish driver. Lift tail modestly for kurtosis only.","key_uncertainty":"Hidden ETF/whale flow could re-rate sharply."},{"name":"TrendPositioning","method":"trend & positioning","anchor":0.0003,"probability":0.01,"reasoning":"funding_8h=0.0001 (0.01%), far below 0.05% extreme threshold — no crowded longs to squeeze. OI $3.15B is unremarkable. Recent Polymarket deltas are sharply negative (Up 0% -41pts, $86k above 0-1%), i.e. positioning/momentum bearish, which cuts AGAINST a 120k close. No named positioning reason to move up.","key_uncertainty":"OI could be understated; a short squeeze is possible but unsupported."},{"name":"EventDriven","method":"event-driven calendar","anchor":0.0003,"probability":0.01,"reasoning":"Upcoming: FOMC Minutes (10/7), CPI (10/14), PPI/Retail (10/15), FOMC Decision (10/28), GDP+PCE (10/29). These are volatility events, not directional catalysts to +41%. A dovish surprise could spike BTC, but reaching 120k in 26d from 84.9k requires ~+41%, historically rare in one month. Event risk widens distribution both ways; net tail impact small.","key_uncertainty":"A surprise rate cut plus ETF inflow could compound, but still a stretch."},{"name":"DevilsAdvocate","method":"devil's advocate","anchor":0.0003,"probability":0.01,"reasoning":"Argue the bull case hardest: 2026 has seen violent BTC rallies; 41% in 26d is not unprecedented in crypto manias. If CPI cools and FOMC cuts, a melt-up is conceivable. Even so, no evidence in the provided market context (funding flat, OI unremarkable, Polymarket momentum down) supports it. Generous fat-tail allowance caps this near 1%.","key_uncertainty":"Black-swan bullish catalyst (sovereign adoption, ETF approval) unmodeled."}],"summary":"Base rate is ~0.0003 for a +41.3% move in 26d at 37.65% ann vol (z=3.44), but crypto fat tails and event risk lift the tail. Panel unanimously caps near 1% while simulation runs average 5-10%; the log-odds mean of runs/panel is ~3.1%, and I keep that as the calibrated centre without upward drift.","drivers":["Extreme base rate: +41.3% in 26d vs 37.65% ann vol gives z=3.44 and driftless lognormal probability ~0.0003","Crypto fat tails/event risk (FOMC, CPI, PPI, GDP/PCE) widen the distribution, but panel caps tail at ~1%","Funding_8h=0.0001 and OI $3.15B show no crowded long/short squeeze setup to fuel a violent +41% rally","Recent Polymarket momentum is bearish (Up 0%, $86k above collapsing), cutting against a 120k close","Simulation runs diverge higher (5-10%) than the unanimous 1% panel; log-odds mean (~3.1%) is the centre and the divergence is kept visible"],"failure_modes":["YES world: a surprise dovish FOMC/CPI plus ETF/whale inflow triggers a mania-style melt-up; crypto kurtosis makes 41% in 26d possible despite flat funding","NO world: bearish momentum persists, funding stays flat, no catalyst arrives, and realized vol does not expand enough to reach 120k"],"confidence":"medium","cost":{"prompt":107037,"completion":33211,"calls":75},"commitment_hash":"d5877dacbfe49cc24057c70d70ec9114cfa85eddaf1997d1720c26b4b96a9a68","market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"edge":null,"base_rate":0,"edge_vs_base":0.031,"config":{"runs":6,"population":20,"rounds":3,"capped":false},"context_used":{"as_of":"2026-10-04 06:00 UTC","asset":"BTC","spot":84911.045,"target":120000,"distance_pct":41.32,"horizon_days":26,"realized_vol_30d_ann":0.3765,"implied_move_pct":10.05,"z_to_target":3.44,"funding_8h":0.0001,"open_interest_usd":3150067639,"market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"base_rate":0,"base_rate_note":"driftless lognormal end-above probability; z=3.44 sigmas over 26d","upcoming_events":["2026-10-07: FOMC Minutes","2026-10-14: Consumer Price Index (CPI)","2026-10-15: Producer Price Index (PPI)","2026-10-15: Advance Monthly Retail Sales","2026-10-28: FOMC Rate Decision + Statement","2026-10-29: GDP Q3 (Advance)","2026-10-29: Personal Income & Outlays (PCE inflation)"],"recent_events":["Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 100% (+24 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3?\" → Up 0% (-41 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3?\" → Up 2% (-48 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 1% (-30 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 0% (-54 pts/24h)"],"extra":{},"sources":["price_for","derivs_for","impact_for","calendar"],"sources_unavailable":[]},"engine_version":"0.3.3-ts","disclaimer":"Information and analytics only — not investment advice. Probabilities are model outputs with a public Brier track record at /v1/oracle/track-record."}