{"status":"done","id":"aee811499406","question":"Will SOL close below 110 USD on 2026-10-31 (Coinbase daily close, UTC)?","created_at":"2026-10-04T06:32:13.274Z","resolves_at":"2026-10-31T23:59:59.000Z","routing":{"domain":"crypto","method":"hybrid","human_driven":true,"binary":true,"rationale":"SOL price is an aggregate market outcome driven by trader behavior, funding, and macro event reactions; binary close-below-110 resolution."},"probability":0.31,"ci80":[0.2768,0.3437],"disagreement":0.0323,"runs":[{"seed":42,"probability":0.3437,"belief_trajectory":[0.342,0.345,0.343,0.3465],"polarization":0.1086,"flipped":2,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":43,"probability":0.2768,"belief_trajectory":[0.282,0.2805,0.279,0.2775],"polarization":0.1082,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":44,"probability":0.3307,"belief_trajectory":[0.332,0.326,0.33,0.332],"polarization":0.0929,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":45,"probability":0.3072,"belief_trajectory":[0.3425,0.333,0.3225,0.314],"polarization":0.0749,"flipped":2,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":46,"probability":0.293,"belief_trajectory":[0.3095,0.306,0.305,0.2995],"polarization":0.0824,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":47,"probability":0.3434,"belief_trajectory":[0.353,0.3515,0.347,0.344],"polarization":0.1101,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]}],"panel":[{"name":"Reference Class Rachel","method":"outside view / reference class","anchor":0.287,"probability":0.3,"reasoning":"Base rate 0.287 (driftless lognormal, z=-0.56 over 26d) is the correct anchor. 30d realized vol 0.6158 vs implied move 16.44% is roughly consistent, no vol mispricing edge. No extreme funding (0.0001%/8h is neutral). I hold near anchor, tiny nudge up because 26d horizon with 0.62 annualized vol gives fat left tail beyond the lognormal assumption.","key_uncertainty":"Whether lognormal is adequate for SOL's jumpy tail."},{"name":"Inside View Ivan","method":"inside view","anchor":0.287,"probability":0.33,"reasoning":"SOL needs -8.84% in 26 days. Recent tape: Forward Industries added 949K SOL (8.5M total) — corporate treasury accumulation is a bid. Polymarket BTC strike ladders resolved strongly bearish-then-recovered (Oct 3 'above 86k' went to 1%), signaling macro risk-off pressure that could drag SOL. Net: mild upward adjustment to probability of breach from accumulation offset by macro.","key_uncertainty":"Direction of macro risk regime into FOMC."},{"name":"Trend Trader Tina","method":"trend & positioning","anchor":0.287,"probability":0.29,"reasoning":"Funding 0.0001%/8h = flat, no crowded long to squeeze. OI $660M is modest, no positioning extreme. No named reason in funding/OI to move beyond anchor. Trend is mildly constructive given treasury buying; I stay at anchor essentially.","key_uncertainty":"Whether OI build accelerates into FOMC."},{"name":"Event Eddie","method":"event-driven (calendar)","anchor":0.287,"probability":0.35,"reasoning":"Dense macro calendar inside horizon: FOMC Minutes (10/7), CPI (10/14), PPI+Retail (10/15), FOMC Decision (10/28), GDP+PCE (10/29). Four inflation/growth prints plus a rate decision in 26 days is elevated event risk — asymmetric for a high-beta asset like SOL. Named reason (a): scheduled events justify moving up ~6pts.","key_uncertainty":"Sign of CPI surprise and Fed tone."},{"name":"Devil's Advocate Dana","method":"devil's advocate","anchor":0.287,"probability":0.24,"reasoning":"Challenge the bear case: SOL at 120.67 with z only -0.56, corporate treasury bid (Forward Industries), and neutral funding. The base rate already embeds the vol. Base rate may overstate downside because it assumes zero drift; crypto has shown positive drift over such windows and BTC strike ladders recovered. I shade below anchor toward 0.24.","key_uncertainty":"Whether drift assumption is truly zero for SOL over 26d."}],"summary":"SOL is 8.8% above the 110 strike with 26 days left and ~62% annualized vol; the driftless base rate is 0.287. Simulation and panel evidence cluster slightly above base (mean ~0.30-0.31) because the dense macro calendar and fat left tail modestly outweigh corporate treasury accumulation and neutral positioning, so I set 0.31.","drivers":["Base rate 0.287 from z=-0.56 over 26d with driftless lognormal; anchor is already close to fair.","30d realized vol 0.6158 vs implied move 16.44% shows no clear vol mispricing edge.","Dense event calendar (FOMC Minutes, CPI, PPI, FOMC decision, GDP/PCE) raises high-beta downside tail risk.","Funding 0.0001%/8h and OI $660M are neutral, no crowded-long squeeze signal.","Forward Industries treasury accumulation (8.5M SOL) is a supportive bid that caps downside probability.","Run/panel means ~0.30-0.31 justify a small upward move from base, not a large repricing."],"failure_modes":["YES world breaks if macro risk-off or a hot CPI/FOMC shock forces SOL through 110 despite treasury accumulation.","NO world breaks if Fed/CPI tone is dovish or SOL rallies with beta, leaving the 110 strike far below by 2026-10-31."],"confidence":"medium","cost":{"prompt":107429,"completion":28360,"calls":75},"commitment_hash":"8437769aad1f4557a672851efeb737cbe43eac427aa37686a56f70d9800b0ace","market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"edge":null,"base_rate":0.287,"edge_vs_base":0.023,"config":{"runs":6,"population":20,"rounds":3,"capped":false},"context_used":{"as_of":"2026-10-04 06:29 UTC","asset":"SOL","spot":120.665,"target":110,"distance_pct":-8.84,"horizon_days":26,"realized_vol_30d_ann":0.6158,"implied_move_pct":16.44,"z_to_target":-0.56,"funding_8h":0.0001,"open_interest_usd":660396799,"market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"base_rate":0.287,"base_rate_note":"complement (question asks BELOW); driftless lognormal end-above probability; z=-0.56 sigmas over 26d","upcoming_events":["2026-10-07: FOMC Minutes","2026-10-14: Consumer Price Index (CPI)","2026-10-15: Producer Price Index (PPI)","2026-10-15: Advance Monthly Retail Sales","2026-10-28: FOMC Rate Decision + Statement","2026-10-29: GDP Q3 (Advance)","2026-10-29: Personal Income & Outlays (PCE inflation)"],"recent_events":["Forward Industries Grows SOL Holdings by 949K to 8.5 Million SOL in Fiscal Fourth Quarter, Increasing SOL per Share to 0","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 100% (+24 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3?\" → Up 0% (-41 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3?\" → Up 2% (-48 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 1% (-30 pts/24h)"],"extra":{},"sources":["price_for","derivs_for","impact_for","calendar"],"sources_unavailable":[]},"engine_version":"0.3.3-ts","disclaimer":"Information and analytics only — not investment advice. Probabilities are model outputs with a public Brier track record at /v1/oracle/track-record."}