{"status":"done","id":"c60b55f0be1b","question":"Will SOL close above 145 USD on 2026-10-31 (Coinbase daily close, UTC)?","created_at":"2026-10-04T06:31:57.774Z","resolves_at":"2026-10-31T23:59:59.000Z","routing":{"domain":"crypto","method":"hybrid","human_driven":true,"binary":true,"rationale":"SOL/USD price path is aggregate market behavior (positioning, funding, macro reaction); binary close-above target. Spot 120.685, target 145 (+20.15%), 26d horizon, 30d realized vol 61.6% ann, implied move 16.44%, z=1.12, base rate 0.132. Heavy macro calendar (FOMC 10/28, CPI 10/14, PCE 10/29) injects event-driven variance; funding ~neutral (0.0001/8h), OI $660M. Base rate is the anchor; no edge to override it."},"probability":0.15,"ci80":[0.12,0.2754],"disagreement":0.061,"runs":[{"seed":42,"probability":0.208,"belief_trajectory":[0.221,0.22,0.22,0.2165],"polarization":0.1031,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":43,"probability":0.2754,"belief_trajectory":[0.3295,0.3172,0.3018,0.2895],"polarization":0.1207,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":44,"probability":0.2843,"belief_trajectory":[0.3145,0.3075,0.3045,0.298],"polarization":0.1124,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":45,"probability":0.2095,"belief_trajectory":[0.235,0.2265,0.2207,0.2113],"polarization":0.0655,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":46,"probability":0.259,"belief_trajectory":[0.27,0.265,0.263,0.264],"polarization":0.0813,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":47,"probability":0.149,"belief_trajectory":[0.1595,0.1625,0.161,0.1573],"polarization":0.0898,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]}],"panel":[{"name":"OutsideView","method":"reference class / driftless lognormal","anchor":0.132,"probability":0.14,"reasoning":"Start from base_rate 0.132 (z=1.12 over 26d, 61.6% ann vol). No drift edge. 26d horizon is short; vol already prices the path. Adjust +0.008 only for slight positive funding (0.0001/8h) implying mild long carry, capped well under 15pp.","key_uncertainty":"Realized vol regime shift; 30d vol may understate event-window vol."},{"name":"InsideView","method":"inside / structural demand","anchor":0.132,"probability":0.155,"reasoning":"Forward Industries added 949K SOL to 8.5M treasury — persistent corporate accumulation is a named flow. +8pp. But SOL per share ~0 signals dilution/NAV concerns, muting conviction. Net +2.3pp over anchor.","key_uncertainty":"Whether treasury buying continues or becomes supply overhang."},{"name":"TrendPositioning","method":"funding / OI / flows","anchor":0.132,"probability":0.12,"reasoning":"Funding 0.0001% is flat, NOT extreme (|rate|<0.05%), so no positioning tailwind. OI $660M is modest, no squeeze fuel. Absence of extreme positioning means no named reason to move up; slight -1.2pp for flat-to-soft carry and no momentum confirmation.","key_uncertainty":"OI build could precede a directional break either way."},{"name":"EventDriven","method":"calendar / macro catalysts","anchor":0.132,"probability":0.16,"reasoning":"Dense calendar: FOMC Minutes (10/7), CPI (10/14), PPI/Retail (10/15), FOMC decision (10/28), GDP+PCE (10/29) all inside horizon. Two-sided vol expansion raises P(touch 145) but also raises P(reject). Net +2.8pp for elevated realized vol near target; not a directional bet.","key_uncertainty":"Macro surprises could push SOL either direction; CPI/FOMC dominate."},{"name":"DevilsAdvocate","method":"devil's advocate / tail discipline","anchor":0.132,"probability":0.1,"reasoning":"Base rate is already a tail (0.132). Distance 20.15% with 26d and 16.44% implied move means target sits ~1.12 sigma up — needs a >1 sigma up move just to touch, and close-above is stricter. Recent Polymarket BTC prints show sharp downward repricing (Up 0%/-41pts), a bearish sentiment tell. -3.2pp. Stay within odds band 0.08-0.26.","key_uncertainty":"If BTC sentiment reverses, SOL beta amplifies upside; if it extends, 145 is far."}],"summary":"Base rate 0.132 and expert panel mean 0.135 anchor the tail, while optimistic run societies (~0.23) are discounted because SOL must close >20% higher through a ~1.1 sigma barrier with neutral funding and modest OI. I settle at 0.15, below the naive 0.180 centre, weighting the panel and base rate more heavily than the higher simulation runs.","drivers":["Spot 120.685, target 145, +20.15% distance, 26d horizon; z=1.12, 61.6% ann vol, implied move 16.44%.","Funding 0.0001/8h neutral and OI $660M modest: no forced-squeeze or carry tailwind.","Macro calendar dense (FOMC minutes 10/7, CPI 10/14, FOMC 10/28, GDP/PCE 10/29), adding two-sided vol but not clear directional edge.","Panel (0.10-0.16) clusters near base; runs (~0.21-0.30) are the optimistic divergence and are not allowed to drift the tail upward.","Forward Industries treasury accumulation is a named flow but SOL/share ~0 signals dilution/NAV concerns."],"failure_modes":["YES breaks if macro risk-on or BTC breakout triggers SOL beta expansion, funding turns positive, OI builds, and 145 converts from rejection to support.","NO breaks if CPI/FOMC hawkish, BTC sentiment remains weak, SOL stays >1 sigma from target, or treasury buying becomes supply overhang."],"confidence":"medium","cost":{"prompt":107316,"completion":32457,"calls":77},"commitment_hash":"4d50f97a1b1b9b8af38139daf17d2a259362354a87e334591470cd5a165397d3","market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"edge":null,"base_rate":0.132,"edge_vs_base":0.018,"config":{"runs":6,"population":20,"rounds":3,"capped":false},"context_used":{"as_of":"2026-10-04 06:28 UTC","asset":"SOL","spot":120.685,"target":145,"distance_pct":20.15,"horizon_days":26,"realized_vol_30d_ann":0.6158,"implied_move_pct":16.44,"z_to_target":1.12,"funding_8h":0.0001,"open_interest_usd":660455848,"market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"base_rate":0.132,"base_rate_note":"driftless lognormal end-above probability; z=1.12 sigmas over 26d","upcoming_events":["2026-10-07: FOMC Minutes","2026-10-14: Consumer Price Index (CPI)","2026-10-15: Producer Price Index (PPI)","2026-10-15: Advance Monthly Retail Sales","2026-10-28: FOMC Rate Decision + Statement","2026-10-29: GDP Q3 (Advance)","2026-10-29: Personal Income & Outlays (PCE inflation)"],"recent_events":["Forward Industries Grows SOL Holdings by 949K to 8.5 Million SOL in Fiscal Fourth Quarter, Increasing SOL per Share to 0","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 100% (+24 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3?\" → Up 0% (-41 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3?\" → Up 2% (-48 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 1% (-30 pts/24h)"],"extra":{},"sources":["price_for","derivs_for","impact_for","calendar"],"sources_unavailable":[]},"engine_version":"0.3.3-ts","disclaimer":"Information and analytics only — not investment advice. Probabilities are model outputs with a public Brier track record at /v1/oracle/track-record."}