{"status":"done","id":"c7e9bc660871","question":"Will BTC close below 73,500 USD on 2026-10-31 (Coinbase daily close, UTC)?","created_at":"2026-10-04T06:20:21.922Z","resolves_at":"2026-10-31T23:59:59.000Z","routing":{"domain":"crypto","method":"hybrid","human_driven":true,"binary":true,"rationale":"BTC price is an aggregate market outcome driven by trader behavior, macro narratives, and event reactions (FOMC, CPI, PCE). Base rate 7.5% below 73,500 with z=-1.44 over 26d; implied move 10.05% vs distance 13.44%, so market prices low probability. Human-driven reflexive dynamics dominate; no physical constraint."},"probability":0.125,"ci80":[0.08,0.2142],"disagreement":0.0494,"runs":[{"seed":42,"probability":0.2142,"belief_trajectory":[0.214,0.215,0.2125,0.2125],"polarization":0.1047,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":43,"probability":0.1358,"belief_trajectory":[0.1365,0.137,0.139,0.141],"polarization":0.0907,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":44,"probability":0.2156,"belief_trajectory":[0.236,0.2348,0.2295,0.224],"polarization":0.109,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":45,"probability":0.1357,"belief_trajectory":[0.148,0.145,0.1383,0.141],"polarization":0.0613,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":46,"probability":0.1862,"belief_trajectory":[0.205,0.2005,0.1958,0.191],"polarization":0.0864,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":47,"probability":0.1719,"belief_trajectory":[0.1705,0.1708,0.1742,0.173],"polarization":0.0864,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]}],"panel":[{"name":"Driftless Lognormal","method":"outside view / reference class","anchor":0.075,"probability":0.075,"reasoning":"Base rate is the driftless lognormal end-below probability at z=-1.44 over 26d: P=Phi(-1.44)=0.075. No scheduled event forces a directional shift; realized vol 0.3765 is already embedded. Spot 84,910, target 73,500 is -13.44%, implied move ~10.05% — reaching -13.4% requires a >1.3 sigma move. Funding 0.0001 (0.01%/8h) is neutral, not extreme. Anchor stands.","key_uncertainty":"Fat left tail from macro shock; lognormal understates jump risk."},{"name":"Macro Calendar","method":"event-driven","anchor":0.075,"probability":0.095,"reasoning":"Six scheduled events inside horizon: CPI 10/14, PPI/Retail 10/15, FOMC 10/28, GDP/PCE 10/29. FOMC + PCE cluster in the final 3 days raises variance and left-tail skew (hawkish surprise). Named reason (a): scheduled events inside horizon. Adjust +2 pts, staying well inside x0.5..x2.0 odds band (0.038..0.135).","key_uncertainty":"Direction of macro surprise is two-sided; only variance is reliably raised."},{"name":"Positioning & Flows","method":"trend & positioning","anchor":0.075,"probability":0.08,"reasoning":"Funding 0.0001 is only 0.01%/8h — far below the |0.05%| extreme threshold, so no crowding signal. OI $3.15B is modest, no squeeze setup. Recent Polymarket prints show BTC pinned above 84k-86k (Yes 100% above 84k) with sharp downside repricing on daily up/down markets — momentum mildly negative but not crash-level. No named reason to move materially; +0.5 pt.","key_uncertainty":"OI data may lag; a leverage flush could cascade faster than funding suggests."},{"name":"Trend Momentum","method":"inside view","anchor":0.075,"probability":0.09,"reasoning":"Recent Polymarket daily up/down collapsed (-41, -48 pts) and 'above $86k' fell to 0-1%, indicating distribution near highs. A 13.4% drawdown in 26 days needs ~0.9% daily drift down — plausible in a corrective regime. Inside view adds modest downside weight. +1.5 pts.","key_uncertainty":"Momentum signals are noisy at daily resolution; one CPI beat reverses them."},{"name":"Devil's Advocate","method":"devil's advocate","anchor":0.075,"probability":0.13,"reasoning":"Challenges the comfortable 7.5%: crypto exhibits fat tails and reflexive liquidations. A single hot CPI (10/14) or hawkish FOMC (10/28) can produce -15% in days, historically observed. Also, z=-1.44 assumes vol 0.3765; if realized vol spikes to 0.60, z moves to -0.90, P=0.18. Named reason (a) calendar + variance regime shift justifies pushing to the upper edge of the tail band (x1.73 odds, within x2.0).","key_uncertainty":"Tail events are by definition rare; over-weighting them risks double-counting the base rate's own tail."}],"summary":"Base rate is 7.5% (driftless lognormal, z=-1.44 over 26d), but simulation runs and panel evidence lift the combined log-odds centre to ~13.2%, driven by fat-tail liquidation risk and a dense macro calendar (CPI 10/14, FOMC 10/28, PCE 10/29). I calibrate to 12.5%, keeping the anchor toward the base rate while acknowledging the simulation's higher left-tail and the panel's more conservative ~9.4% mean.","drivers":["Base_rate=0.075: driftless lognormal P(BTC<73,500) at 13.44% distance and 10.05% implied move.","Simulation runs mean ~17.7%, combined log-odds centre with panel ~13.2%; runs embed fat-tail/reflexive liquidation risk.","Panel mean 9.4%: modest upward adjustments for six scheduled macro events inside horizon and mildly negative momentum; funding 0.0001 and OI $3.15B show no extreme crowding.","Recent Polymarket: BTC pinned above 84k but daily up/down markets repriced sharply lower, indicating distribution near highs.","Divergence: runs are more bearish than panel; I keep it visible and do not fully smooth to the panel mean."],"failure_modes":["YES breaks if a hot CPI or hawkish FOMC triggers a >13.4% drawdown, leverage flush, or realized vol spikes above 0.60, moving z toward -0.9 and P(YES) to ~0.18+.","NO breaks if macro surprises are benign, ETF/institutional inflows resume, BTC holds 80k support, or the lognormal understates upside drift; event risk is two-sided and can raise vol without directional break.","Model risk: lognormal may understate jump risk; panel may overstate event impact; funding/OI could lag a fast squeeze."],"confidence":"medium","cost":{"prompt":108155,"completion":32280,"calls":75},"commitment_hash":"308d29ff1d6257da565af3fa1d72604236b099b24f3c3f0e1cc991e57795a9a9","market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"edge":null,"base_rate":0.075,"edge_vs_base":0.05,"config":{"runs":6,"population":20,"rounds":3,"capped":false},"context_used":{"as_of":"2026-10-04 06:17 UTC","asset":"BTC","spot":84909.665,"target":73500,"distance_pct":-13.44,"horizon_days":26,"realized_vol_30d_ann":0.3765,"implied_move_pct":10.05,"z_to_target":-1.44,"funding_8h":0.0001,"open_interest_usd":3150924623,"market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"base_rate":0.075,"base_rate_note":"complement (question asks BELOW); driftless lognormal end-above probability; z=-1.44 sigmas over 26d","upcoming_events":["2026-10-07: FOMC Minutes","2026-10-14: Consumer Price Index (CPI)","2026-10-15: Producer Price Index (PPI)","2026-10-15: Advance Monthly Retail Sales","2026-10-28: FOMC Rate Decision + Statement","2026-10-29: GDP Q3 (Advance)","2026-10-29: Personal Income & Outlays (PCE inflation)"],"recent_events":["Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 100% (+24 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3?\" → Up 0% (-41 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3?\" → Up 2% (-48 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 1% (-30 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 0% (-54 pts/24h)"],"extra":{},"sources":["price_for","derivs_for","impact_for","calendar"],"sources_unavailable":[]},"engine_version":"0.3.3-ts","disclaimer":"Information and analytics only — not investment advice. Probabilities are model outputs with a public Brier track record at /v1/oracle/track-record."}