{"status":"done","id":"e24e211a840c","question":"Will total crypto market cap be higher on 2026-10-31 than on 2026-09-30 (CoinGecko)?","created_at":"2026-10-04T06:09:06.210Z","resolves_at":"2026-10-31T23:59:59Z","routing":{"domain":"crypto","method":"hybrid","human_driven":true,"binary":true,"rationale":"Total crypto market cap over a 31-day window is driven by aggregate trader/investor behavior reacting to macro events (FOMC, CPI, PCE) and crypto-native narratives; no physical constraint. Binary outcome: mcap(2026-10-31) > mcap(2026-09-30). Base rate ~0.5 driftless, but 26d horizon to reference plus 5d tail to resolution, vol proxy ~37.6% ann implies ~1 sigma ≈ 11% move; event-dense October (FOMC 10/28, GDP/PCE 10/29) raises variance and fat-tail risk, so probability near coin-flip with slight downside skew from macro uncertainty."},"probability":0.494,"ci80":[0.47,0.52],"disagreement":0.0201,"runs":[{"seed":42,"probability":0.4601,"belief_trajectory":[0.4785,0.4785,0.473,0.4655],"polarization":0.0964,"flipped":3,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":43,"probability":0.5122,"belief_trajectory":[0.535,0.5315,0.5245,0.517],"polarization":0.1056,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":44,"probability":0.4977,"belief_trajectory":[0.514,0.5105,0.5075,0.4993],"polarization":0.0629,"flipped":2,"tipping_round":3,"notes":[]},{"seed":45,"probability":0.4753,"belief_trajectory":[0.5039,0.5009,0.4874,0.4804],"polarization":0.086,"flipped":2,"tipping_round":2,"notes":[]},{"seed":46,"probability":0.4935,"belief_trajectory":[0.5155,0.51,0.5,0.495],"polarization":0.0572,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":3,"notes":[]},{"seed":47,"probability":0.4901,"belief_trajectory":[0.4945,0.4925,0.4915,0.489],"polarization":0.0942,"flipped":3,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]}],"panel":[{"name":"Reference Class","method":"outside view","anchor":0.5,"probability":0.5,"reasoning":"Driftless lognormal with z=0.00 over 26 days gives 50%. No evidence in the packet justifies moving; 30d ann vol 37.65% is embedded in the reference class, not additive. Base rate stands.","key_uncertainty":"Realized vol over Oct could exceed the 30d proxy"},{"name":"Inside View","method":"inside view","anchor":0.5,"probability":0.52,"reasoning":"BTC dominance 59.6% is elevated, typical of defensive regimes; 24h mcap -0.06% is flat, no momentum either way. Mild positive tilt since flat tape with no drawdown impulse historically drifts up nominally. +2pp only.","key_uncertainty":"Dominance regime could mean alt bleed, not mcap growth"},{"name":"Trend & Positioning","method":"trend/positioning","anchor":0.5,"probability":0.5,"reasoning":"No funding_8h or OI data provided; no extreme positioning signal available. Vol proxy 37.65% is moderate, not a positioning extreme. Cannot move without named evidence.","key_uncertainty":"Absence of positioning data is itself a blind spot"},{"name":"Event-Driven","method":"event-driven","anchor":0.5,"probability":0.47,"reasoning":"Dense macro calendar inside horizon: CPI 10/14, FOMC 10/28, GDP 10/29, PCE 10/29. FOMC decision two days before resolution and GDP/PCE three days before creates asymmetric late-window vol; crypto beta to hawkish surprises skews downside. -3pp.","key_uncertainty":"Direction of FOMC surprise is unknown; could be dovish"},{"name":"Devil's Advocate","method":"devil's advocate","anchor":0.5,"probability":0.53,"reasoning":"Against the bearish event case: base rate is symmetric and a 26-day window with no confirmed negative catalyst is not bearish by default. Late-October events could be dovish (rate cut), lifting risk assets including crypto. Slight upward challenge to consensus tilt. +3pp.","key_uncertainty":"Any single macro print can dominate the window"}],"summary":"Aggregated evidence puts the probability slightly below a coin flip: simulation mean is 0.495 and panel mean is 0.504, while the dense late-October macro calendar and elevated BTC dominance add a mild downside skew. I set 0.494, near the simulation/panel blend and not a default 0.5.","drivers":["Base rate driftless lognormal with z=0.00 over 26 days anchors at 0.50","Simulation runs mean 0.495; panel mean 0.504; net evidence roughly flat to slightly negative","Dense macro calendar inside horizon: FOMC 10/28, GDP/PCE 10/29, CPI 10/14 raises late-window variance and hawkish-surprise downside risk","BTC dominance 59.6% and 24h mcap -0.06% suggest defensive/flat tape, no clear upside momentum","No funding/OI positioning data available, reducing ability to detect crowded short/long extremes"],"failure_modes":[],"confidence":"medium","cost":{"prompt":96072,"completion":27411,"calls":76},"commitment_hash":"89e1a94bbf916ce17eed7ad7997a607c9c03daddf44ecf86fb03ed3170fd1434","market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"edge":null,"base_rate":0.5,"edge_vs_base":-0.006,"config":{"runs":6,"population":20,"rounds":3,"capped":false},"context_used":{"as_of":"2026-10-04 06:06 UTC","asset":null,"spot":null,"target":null,"distance_pct":null,"horizon_days":26,"realized_vol_30d_ann":null,"implied_move_pct":null,"z_to_target":null,"funding_8h":null,"open_interest_usd":null,"market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"base_rate":0.5,"base_rate_note":"total mcap vs reference level ≈ today's (2846B USD); driftless lognormal end-above probability; z=0.00 sigmas over 26d","upcoming_events":["2026-10-07: FOMC Minutes","2026-10-14: Consumer Price Index (CPI)","2026-10-15: Producer Price Index (PPI)","2026-10-15: Advance Monthly Retail Sales","2026-10-28: FOMC Rate Decision + Statement","2026-10-29: GDP Q3 (Advance)","2026-10-29: Personal Income & Outlays (PCE inflation)"],"recent_events":[],"extra":{"provider":{"crypto_mcap":"coinlore"},"total_crypto_mcap_usd":2845599051086,"mcap_change_24h_pct":-0.06,"btc_share_pct":59.6,"mcap_vol_proxy_btc_30d_ann":0.3765,"mcap_source":"coinlore"},"sources":["calendar","crypto_mcap"],"sources_unavailable":[]},"engine_version":"0.3.3-ts","disclaimer":"Information and analytics only — not investment advice. Probabilities are model outputs with a public Brier track record at /v1/oracle/track-record."}