{"status":"done","id":"e60349435098","question":"Will a new all-time high for Bitcoin be set between 2026-09-30 and 2026-10-31?","created_at":"2026-10-04T06:12:27.729Z","resolves_at":"2026-10-31T23:59:59Z","routing":{"domain":"crypto","method":"hybrid","human_driven":true,"binary":true,"rationale":"BTC ATH is an aggregate market/narrative outcome; spot 84912 vs prior ATH implies need >~30% move in <1 month, vol 0.3765 ann makes this low-probability; resolution is touch-based on Coinbase history."},"probability":0.07,"ci80":[0.0935,0.1883],"disagreement":0.065,"runs":[{"seed":42,"probability":0.0935,"belief_trajectory":[0.1165,0.1116,0.1001,0.0971],"polarization":0.0672,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":43,"probability":0.336,"belief_trajectory":[0.391,0.375,0.357,0.3505],"polarization":0.1306,"flipped":3,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":44,"probability":0.1883,"belief_trajectory":[0.222,0.2178,0.2085,0.198],"polarization":0.1575,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":45,"probability":0.1355,"belief_trajectory":[0.1505,0.1438,0.143,0.1378],"polarization":0.0754,"flipped":0,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":46,"probability":0.1812,"belief_trajectory":[0.22,0.2175,0.2015,0.195],"polarization":0.1091,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":47,"probability":0.1684,"belief_trajectory":[0.2145,0.207,0.1898,0.1813],"polarization":0.1347,"flipped":2,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]}],"panel":[{"name":"OutsideView","method":"reference class","anchor":0.12,"probability":0.12,"reasoning":"Reference class: BTC ATH within a ~1-month window. Historically new ATHs cluster in bull trends; from spot 84912, prior ATH is above current price (Polymarket shows $86k as a stretch, implying ATH well above $86k). Base rate of reclaiming ATH within 31 days from ~5-15% below ATH is roughly 10-15%. No named calendar event inside horizon justifies moving; funding neutral (0.0001%).","key_uncertainty":"Exact prior ATH level and distance from spot; whether trend is bullish or range-bound."},{"name":"InsideView","method":"inside view","anchor":0.12,"probability":0.14,"reasoning":"Spot 84912, 30d realized vol 37.65% ann. To reach ATH (likely ~$90k+) needs +6%+ in 27 days. At this vol, a +6% move in 27d has meaningful but not dominant probability (~35-40% for touch of +6%), but ATH may be higher, reducing probability. Adjust +2pts for momentum uncertainty.","key_uncertainty":"Unknown exact ATH; vol may expand or contract."},{"name":"TrendPositioning","method":"trend & positioning","anchor":0.12,"probability":0.13,"reasoning":"Funding 8h=0.0001% (neutral, no extreme), OI $3.15B moderate. No extreme positioning to justify >15pt move. Polymarket 'Up or Down' collapsed to 0-2% Up for Oct 3, and above-$86k at 0-1% — market sees downside/range, not breakout. Slight downward pressure but not extreme.","key_uncertainty":"Polymarket thin liquidity; could be stale."},{"name":"EventDriven","method":"event-driven","anchor":0.12,"probability":0.12,"reasoning":"No scheduled events in upcoming_events listed. Horizon 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-31 has no named catalyst in data. No calendar-based adjustment warranted; stay at base rate.","key_uncertainty":"Unlisted macro events (FOMC, ETF flows) could surprise."},{"name":"DevilsAdvocate","method":"devil's advocate","anchor":0.12,"probability":0.09,"reasoning":"Challenge the bull case: Polymarket shows strong rejection at $86k (0-1% Yes), suggesting ATH is far and market is bearish near-term. If ATH > $90k, required move is >6% with neutral funding and no catalyst. Tail rule: anchor 0.12 -> odds 0.136, keep within 0.068..0.27. Adjust down to 0.09 (odds 0.099, within range) citing named reason (c) market_odds: Polymarket $86k Yes at 0-1% differs from base_rate by >10pts, market knows something.","key_uncertainty":"Market could be wrong; sudden ETF inflow could spike price."}],"summary":"Aggregated probability is 7%, below the 12% base anchor, because routing indicates BTC needs >~30% to reclaim prior ATH within ~27 days, unlikely at 37.65% annualized vol. Panel/runs cluster near 0.12–0.18, but likely underweight the distance to ATH; I keep a small tail for vol expansion.","drivers":["routing: >30% move required vs prior ATH","30d realized vol 37.65% ann; touch prob ~1–5% for +30% barrier","neutral funding and moderate OI, no named catalyst","panel/runs optimistic at 0.12–0.18 vs base 0.12; divergence noted","Polymarket near-term shows rejection at $86k, bearish tilt"],"failure_modes":[],"confidence":"medium","cost":{"prompt":94561,"completion":32940,"calls":76},"commitment_hash":"9d10053ee23c1fcb8b34604826d0609246f2356818e6c67ad0fea37f8c83bbf4","market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"edge":null,"base_rate":null,"edge_vs_base":null,"config":{"runs":6,"population":20,"rounds":3,"capped":false},"context_used":{"as_of":"2026-10-04 06:09 UTC","asset":"BTC","spot":84912.015,"target":null,"distance_pct":null,"horizon_days":1,"realized_vol_30d_ann":0.3765,"implied_move_pct":null,"z_to_target":null,"funding_8h":0.0001,"open_interest_usd":3150271693,"market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"base_rate":null,"base_rate_note":"","upcoming_events":[],"recent_events":["Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 100% (+24 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3?\" → Up 0% (-41 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3?\" → Up 2% (-48 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 1% (-30 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 0% (-54 pts/24h)"],"extra":{},"sources":["price_for","derivs_for","impact_for"],"sources_unavailable":[]},"engine_version":"0.3.3-ts","disclaimer":"Information and analytics only — not investment advice. Probabilities are model outputs with a public Brier track record at /v1/oracle/track-record."}