{"status":"done","id":"eb611b7d6dd6","question":"Will ETH trade above 3,050 USD at any point before 2026-10-31?","created_at":"2026-10-04T06:28:54.964Z","resolves_at":"2026-10-31T23:59:59.000Z","routing":{"domain":"crypto","method":"hybrid","human_driven":true,"binary":true,"rationale":"ETH price touch is driven by aggregate trader/investor behavior and market microstructure; base rate 0.246 from driftless lognormal (z=1.16, 26d), implied move 10.76% vs 13.29% distance, funding near zero, OI $3.2B. Event-heavy window (FOMC, CPI, PCE) adds narrative-driven volatility. Binary touch-above resolution."},"probability":0.28,"ci80":[0.22,0.3045],"disagreement":0.0418,"runs":[{"seed":42,"probability":0.3016,"belief_trajectory":[0.305,0.3045,0.305,0.303],"polarization":0.0734,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":43,"probability":0.3351,"belief_trajectory":[0.366,0.3525,0.3435,0.3375],"polarization":0.0858,"flipped":2,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":44,"probability":0.2867,"belief_trajectory":[0.2965,0.294,0.293,0.2915],"polarization":0.1048,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":45,"probability":0.2675,"belief_trajectory":[0.2998,0.2926,0.2833,0.2765],"polarization":0.0981,"flipped":2,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":46,"probability":0.2738,"belief_trajectory":[0.301,0.289,0.2835,0.2815],"polarization":0.0782,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":47,"probability":0.3045,"belief_trajectory":[0.318,0.3205,0.3195,0.314],"polarization":0.1409,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]}],"panel":[{"name":"Reference Class","method":"outside view / driftless lognormal touch","anchor":0.246,"probability":0.26,"reasoning":"Base rate 0.246 is the driftless lognormal touch probability for z=1.16 over 26d. Realized vol 30d ann 0.4033 is the correct sigma; implied move 10.76% sits inside realized-implied spread, so no vol-edge adjustment. Distance 13.29% is meaningful but 26 days is enough for ETH to traverse it in a single regime shift. Small lift to 0.26 for fat right tail versus lognormal (crypto touch probs are systematically underpriced by Gaussian tails). No calendar/positioning reason to move further.","key_uncertainty":"Whether realized vol stays near 40% ann or collapses post-FOMC"},{"name":"Inside View","method":"structural / flow analysis","anchor":0.246,"probability":0.22,"reasoning":"Funding 8h = +0.0001% is essentially flat-to-slightly-positive, no leveraged-long euphoria to fuel a squeeze higher. OI $3.23B is moderate, not elevated. Recent Polymarket prints show ETH pinned near $2,700 with repeated failed upside probes (above $2,700 → 0% at one point, then 67%). Spot 2692 sits just below the recent battleground. Without a catalyst, ETH tends to grind sideways here. Cut from base to 0.22.","key_uncertainty":"Whether a macro surprise unlocks the $3,050 level or ETH chops in $2,600-2,800"},{"name":"Trend & Positioning","method":"funding, OI, flows, momentum","anchor":0.246,"probability":0.24,"reasoning":"Flat funding (+0.0001%/8h) and OI $3.23B are neutral — no |rate|>0.05% extreme, so no positioning-driven move per tail rule. However, the Polymarket sequence (above $2,700 hit 0% then 67% within 24h) signals violent two-sided churn and a market that respects the $2,700 pivot. Momentum is neutral-to-soft. Hold near base at 0.24: no named positioning reason to move more than a point or two.","key_uncertainty":"Whether churn resolves up (breakout) or down (lower-high rejection)"},{"name":"Event-Driven","method":"calendar / scheduled catalysts","anchor":0.246,"probability":0.3,"reasoning":"Dense macro calendar inside horizon: FOMC Minutes 10/07, CPI 10/14, PPI+Retail 10/15, FOMC decision 10/28, GDP+PCE 10/29. Four of these are top-tier vol events. CPI and FOMC in particular have historically produced 5-10% single-day ETH moves. A dovish CPI or dovish FOMC statement is a named reason to lift touch probability. Raise from 0.246 to 0.30 (+5.4pts), justified by (a) scheduled events in upcoming_events.","key_uncertainty":"Direction of macro surprise — dovish lifts ETH, hawkish crushes it; net drift ambiguous"},{"name":"Devil's Advocate","method":"falsification / why-not-higher","anchor":0.246,"probability":0.18,"reasoning":"Challenge the bulls: 13.29% in 26 days requires sustained upside, but ETH just failed to hold $2,700 (Polymarket 'above $2,700' printed 0% at one point). Repeated lower highs into $2,700 argue the path of least resistance is down or sideways. Flat funding means no forced short squeeze. Horizon includes FOMC 10/28 and PCE 10/29 — historically these can trigger risk-off. If ETH needs to clear $2,700, then $2,800, then $2,900 before $3,050, each is a resistance wall. Cut to 0.18.","key_uncertainty":"Whether the recent $2,700 rejection is a lower high or a base before breakout"}],"summary":"Base driftless lognormal touch is 0.246; simulations cluster higher near 0.295 on event-driven vol expansion, while panel views split between Reference/Inside/Trend (~0.22-0.26), Event-Driven (0.30), and Devil's Advocate (0.18). I settle at 0.28: modest lift over base for dense macro catalysts and fat right tail, but not to the simulation mean because ETH is pinned below $2,700 resistance, funding is flat, and no squeeze fuel is visible.","drivers":["Base rate 0.246: z=1.16 over 26d under driftless lognormal","Implied move 10.76% vs 13.29% distance; requires >1 sigma rally","Dense macro calendar: FOMC Minutes, CPI, PPI, FOMC decision, GDP/PCE inside horizon","Funding +0.0001%/8h and OI $3.23B neutral, no leveraged-long or short-squeeze extreme","Recent Polymarket churn around $2,700 signals two-sided risk and nearby resistance","Simulation mean ~0.295 vs panel mean ~0.24; final between those poles"],"failure_modes":[],"confidence":"medium","cost":{"prompt":107064,"completion":32185,"calls":75},"commitment_hash":"b86b117917edee323944cd131c8d66e2c1f7760ca96ab278c125b66c8a789641","market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"edge":null,"base_rate":0.246,"edge_vs_base":0.034,"config":{"runs":6,"population":20,"rounds":3,"capped":false},"context_used":{"as_of":"2026-10-04 06:25 UTC","asset":"ETH","spot":2692.13,"target":3050,"distance_pct":13.29,"horizon_days":26,"realized_vol_30d_ann":0.4033,"implied_move_pct":10.76,"z_to_target":1.16,"funding_8h":0.0001,"open_interest_usd":3228713023,"market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"base_rate":0.246,"base_rate_note":"driftless lognormal touch probability; z=1.16 sigmas over 26d","upcoming_events":["2026-10-07: FOMC Minutes","2026-10-14: Consumer Price Index (CPI)","2026-10-15: Producer Price Index (PPI)","2026-10-15: Advance Monthly Retail Sales","2026-10-28: FOMC Rate Decision + Statement","2026-10-29: GDP Q3 (Advance)","2026-10-29: Personal Income & Outlays (PCE inflation)"],"recent_events":["Polymarket: \"Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 2?\" → Yes 0% (-39 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 2?\" → Yes 67% (+26 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?\" → Yes 0% (-23 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?\" → Yes 1% (-22 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?\" → Yes 1% (-22 pts/24h)"],"extra":{},"sources":["price_for","derivs_for","impact_for","calendar"],"sources_unavailable":[]},"engine_version":"0.3.3-ts","disclaimer":"Information and analytics only — not investment advice. Probabilities are model outputs with a public Brier track record at /v1/oracle/track-record."}