{"status":"done","id":"f2a0f00e983b","question":"Will SOL close above 130 USD on 2026-10-31 (Coinbase daily close, UTC)?","created_at":"2026-10-04T06:29:27.082Z","resolves_at":"2026-10-31T23:59:59.000Z","routing":{"domain":"crypto","method":"hybrid","human_driven":true,"binary":true,"rationale":"SOL/USD close above 130 is a market-priced outcome driven by aggregate trader positioning, funding, and macro-event reactions (FOMC, CPI, PCE). Spot 120.675, 7.73% below target, 26d horizon, 30d realized vol 61.6% ann, implied move 16.4%, z=0.45, base rate 0.325. Human-driven narrative/flow dynamics dominate; classify as social_sim."},"probability":0.348,"ci80":[0.3,0.3813],"disagreement":0.0412,"runs":[{"seed":42,"probability":0.3143,"belief_trajectory":[0.337,0.3355,0.3285,0.3215],"polarization":0.0958,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":43,"probability":0.433,"belief_trajectory":[0.434,0.4295,0.427,0.426],"polarization":0.1457,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":44,"probability":0.3765,"belief_trajectory":[0.406,0.401,0.3935,0.3845],"polarization":0.1166,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":45,"probability":0.3765,"belief_trajectory":[0.382,0.3775,0.3765,0.3775],"polarization":0.0704,"flipped":2,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":46,"probability":0.3813,"belief_trajectory":[0.3855,0.3873,0.3878,0.3877],"polarization":0.1016,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]},{"seed":47,"probability":0.3604,"belief_trajectory":[0.401,0.3948,0.3885,0.3762],"polarization":0.1068,"flipped":1,"tipping_round":null,"notes":[]}],"panel":[{"name":"Reference Class","method":"outside view","anchor":0.325,"probability":0.33,"reasoning":"Base rate 0.325 is driftless lognormal end-above prob with z=0.45 sigmas over 26d. Realized vol 30d ann 0.6158 vs implied move 16.44% are broadly consistent; no reason to abandon the reference class. Small upward nudge to 0.33 for mild positive drift in SOL ecosystem (Forward Industries accumulation) but capped well under 15pp.","key_uncertainty":"Whether 30d realized vol understates the vol regime over the next 26 days given four macro prints."},{"name":"Inside View","method":"inside view","anchor":0.325,"probability":0.36,"reasoning":"SOL at 120.68 needs +7.73% to hit 130. Funding 8h is +0.0001% (essentially flat, no crowded longs), OI $660M is unremarkable. Flat funding is mildly constructive — no leverage-driven mean-reversion pressure. Institutional accumulation narratives (Forward Industries 8.5M SOL) support structural bid. Adjust +3.5pp from anchor.","key_uncertainty":"Thin liquidity around month-end macro cluster could whipsaw the close."},{"name":"Trend & Positioning","method":"trend & positioning","anchor":0.325,"probability":0.3,"reasoning":"Funding 0.0001% is far below the 0.05% extreme threshold, so no positioning signal to exploit. OI $660M is mid-range, not extreme. No flow data showing sustained SOL inflows. Trend is neutral-to-slightly-positive but insufficient to move far. Small -2.5pp adjustment because flat funding can also mean apathy and the z=0.45 is not a strong trend.","key_uncertainty":"Whale/ETF flows not observable in the provided data."},{"name":"Event-Driven","method":"event-driven","anchor":0.325,"probability":0.34,"reasoning":"Horizon contains FOMC Minutes (10/7), CPI (10/14), PPI+Retail (10/15), FOMC decision (10/28), GDP+PCE (10/29). Five macro catalysts inside 26 days raise realized vol and widen the distribution — this mechanically raises P(above a level only 0.45 sigma away). Net +1.5pp. No single event dominates direction.","key_uncertainty":"A hawkish FOMC on 10/28, three days before resolution, could crush risk assets."},{"name":"Devil's Advocate","method":"devil's advocate","anchor":0.325,"probability":0.28,"reasoning":"Base rate may overstate because lognormal assumes no fat left tail; crypto exhibits negative skew around macro events. Recent Polymarket BTC 'Up' contracts collapsed -41 to -48 pts, suggesting near-term bearish sentiment. A 7.73% move in 26 days is achievable but not favored. Adjust -4.5pp, staying inside the tail rule (odds 0.325 -> ~0.28 is within x0.5..x2.0).","key_uncertainty":"Sentiment snapback if CPI or FOMC surprises dovish."}],"summary":"Base rate at 0.325 is the anchor; runs lean higher (mean ~0.374) while the panel sits slightly lower (~0.322), leaving a calibrated edge just under 0.35. Flat funding and mid-range OI give no strong positioning signal, but the 26d macro cluster raises two-sided vol enough to keep a >130 close plausible without making it favored.","drivers":["Spot 120.675 is 7.73% below target with z≈0.45, so YES requires an ordinary but non-trivial upside move.","Run probabilities cluster 0.36–0.43 except one bearish 0.314, pulling simulation mean above base_rate.","Panel is near base but internally split: Inside View 0.36 and Event-Driven 0.34 vs Trend 0.30 and Devil's Advocate 0.28.","Funding 0.0001% per 8h is effectively flat; no crowded-long mean-reversion signal, no strong apathy edge either.","Macro catalysts (CPI 10/14, FOMC 10/28, PCE 10/29) inside horizon widen distribution and mechanically help a below-target strike, but add hawkish skew risk."],"failure_modes":[],"confidence":"medium","cost":{"prompt":104996,"completion":27711,"calls":75},"commitment_hash":"c5e051395ed761ab50607d46e7f97a048fc06bf949e01810cba9c1c6df79e51b","market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"edge":null,"base_rate":0.325,"edge_vs_base":0.023,"config":{"runs":6,"population":20,"rounds":3,"capped":false},"context_used":{"as_of":"2026-10-04 06:26 UTC","asset":"SOL","spot":120.675,"target":130,"distance_pct":7.73,"horizon_days":26,"realized_vol_30d_ann":0.6158,"implied_move_pct":16.44,"z_to_target":0.45,"funding_8h":0.0001,"open_interest_usd":660471170,"market_odds":null,"market_ref":null,"base_rate":0.325,"base_rate_note":"driftless lognormal end-above probability; z=0.45 sigmas over 26d","upcoming_events":["2026-10-07: FOMC Minutes","2026-10-14: Consumer Price Index (CPI)","2026-10-15: Producer Price Index (PPI)","2026-10-15: Advance Monthly Retail Sales","2026-10-28: FOMC Rate Decision + Statement","2026-10-29: GDP Q3 (Advance)","2026-10-29: Personal Income & Outlays (PCE inflation)"],"recent_events":["Forward Industries Grows SOL Holdings by 949K to 8.5 Million SOL in Fiscal Fourth Quarter, Increasing SOL per Share to 0","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 100% (+24 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3?\" → Up 0% (-41 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Bitcoin Up or Down on October 3?\" → Up 2% (-48 pts/24h)","Polymarket: \"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 3?\" → Yes 1% (-30 pts/24h)"],"extra":{},"sources":["price_for","derivs_for","impact_for","calendar"],"sources_unavailable":[]},"engine_version":"0.3.3-ts","disclaimer":"Information and analytics only — not investment advice. Probabilities are model outputs with a public Brier track record at /v1/oracle/track-record."}