Calibrated probabilities for standing market questions, recomputed daily at 06:00 UTC. Every forecast is committed with a sha256 hash before it resolves, and scored with Brier against the Polymarket price at forecast time. Nothing is edited after the fact.
| Question | Oracle | Base rate | Market | Resolves | Commitment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 73.0% | — | 74.5% | 2026-10-05 | 59402cc3d0… |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | 73.0% | — | 74.5% | 2026-10-05 | e53898a875… |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | 5.6% | — | 4.6% | 2026-10-05 | df0ea79c39… |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 62.8% | — | 64.5% | 2026-10-26 | 5afd8857c5… |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 33.9% | — | 34.5% | 2026-10-26 | e5df0a9b6a… |
| Will the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate at its October 2026 FOMC meeting? | 1.0% | — | 0.7% | 2026-10-28 | 2f1e407cbb… |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 1.0% | — | 0.4% | 2026-10-29 | b942463727… |
| Will the S&P 500 close October 2026 above its September 2026 close? | 61.0% | 63.7% | — | 2026-10-30 | 7dee3f1ef5… |
| Will BTC close above 89,000 USD on 2026-10-31 (Coinbase daily close, UTC)? | 33.5% | 31.9% | — | 2026-10-31 | 6e1be8ef50… |
| Will BTC close above 94,500 USD on 2026-10-31 (Coinbase daily close, UTC)? | 15.5% | 14.3% | — | 2026-10-31 | 87b3190957… |
| Will BTC close below 73,500 USD on 2026-10-31 (Coinbase daily close, UTC)? | 12.5% | 7.5% | — | 2026-10-31 | 308d29ff1d… |
| Will BTC close below 78,500 USD on 2026-10-31 (Coinbase daily close, UTC)? | 23.2% | 21.7% | — | 2026-10-31 | 847d22819f… |
| Will BTC trade above 94,500 USD at any point before 2026-10-31? | 28.5% | 28.7% | — | 2026-10-31 | ed28e930f6… |
| Will ETH close above 2,850 USD on 2026-10-31 (Coinbase daily close, UTC)? | 31.5% | 30.2% | — | 2026-10-31 | ce92ca03c4… |
| Will ETH close above 3,050 USD on 2026-10-31 (Coinbase daily close, UTC)? | 16.0% | 12.4% | — | 2026-10-31 | f1a4d5931b… |
| Will ETH close below 2,350 USD on 2026-10-31 (Coinbase daily close, UTC)? | 16.0% | 10.3% | — | 2026-10-31 | 3e448d0298… |
| Will ETH trade above 3,050 USD at any point before 2026-10-31? | 28.0% | 24.6% | — | 2026-10-31 | b86b117917… |
| Will SOL close above 130 USD on 2026-10-31 (Coinbase daily close, UTC)? | 34.8% | 32.5% | — | 2026-10-31 | c5e051395e… |
| Will SOL close above 145 USD on 2026-10-31 (Coinbase daily close, UTC)? | 15.0% | 13.2% | — | 2026-10-31 | 4d50f97a1b… |
| Will SOL close below 110 USD on 2026-10-31 (Coinbase daily close, UTC)? | 31.0% | 28.7% | — | 2026-10-31 | 8437769aad… |
| Will SOL close below 99 USD on 2026-10-31 (Coinbase daily close, UTC)? | 17.0% | 11.4% | — | 2026-10-31 | b1007a9e41… |
| Will SOL trade above 145 USD at any point before 2026-10-31? | 29.0% | 26.4% | — | 2026-10-31 | fb1d61e1ad… |
| Will Bitcoin close above 120,000 USD on 2026-10-31 (Coinbase daily close, UTC)? | 3.1% | 0.0% | — | 2026-10-31 | d5877dacbf… |
| Will a new all-time high for Bitcoin be set between 2026-09-30 and 2026-10-31? | 7.0% | — | — | 2026-10-31 | 9d10053ee2… |
| Will total crypto market cap be higher on 2026-10-31 than on 2026-09-30 (CoinGecko)? | 49.4% | 50.0% | — | 2026-10-31 | 89e1a94bbf… |
| Will Ethereum trade above 5,000 USD at any point before 2026-10-31? | 2.0% | 0.0% | — | 2026-10-31 | 8bf4c0253d… |
| Will Solana close above Ethereum in 30-day realized volatility on 2026-10-31? | 57.9% | 57.1% | — | 2026-10-31 | aff8f5e9bd… |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October? | 13.5% | — | 12.5% | 2026-11-01 | ccfbd3f22b… |
| Will Brazil's central bank (Copom) cut the Selic rate at its November 2026 meeting? | 32.0% | — | — | 2026-11-04 | 61614f8f2f… |
→ Visual version (cards, Portuguese): /previsoes · English cards
Faded rows are kept in the ledger but excluded from calibration metrics (reason on hover). Machine-readable: /v1/oracle/board · /v1/oracle/edge · /v1/oracle/track-record · methodology · API plans from $9/month: /pricing
Operator: Marbella Collins LLC · contact@degenscan.io · Information and analytics only — not investment advice.